The sectarian violence gripping Iraq is one of the toughest tests yet of the political process there, but US commanders do not see it spiralling into civil war, senior Pentagon officials said. The officials said the Iraqi security forces show no signs of cracking but rather have taken the lead in enforcing a curfew and restoring order in Samarra, where the bombing of a revered Shiite mosque this week set off a wave of reprisal killings.
"What the extremists are trying to do is to foment a civil war. But we don't see it. We don't see it succeeding," said Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense.
Rodman, however, said the burst of sectarian violence is the biggest test of US efforts to stabilize the country since the assassination in August 2003 of Shiite leader Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim in a car bombing in Najaf.
A key indicator, he said, will be whether political leaders resume negotiations on forming a new government, which broke off after the mosque bombing.
"We expect the formation of the government to resume. And that is the strategic prize," he told reporters here.
"Not only do I not see civil war happening, I don't think they're going to succeed in derailing the political process," he said.
The officials spoke after the Pentagon delivered to Congress a quarterly progress report on Iraq that appeared to have been overtaken by events in Iraq in key respects.
Completed February 17, just days before the latest wave of violence, the report said, "Terrorist groups have so far failed to create widespread sectarian conflict, despite this being a clear goal of some."
However, it noted that thousands of Shiites have been killed over the course of the year in suicide attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq and that Shiite-controlled Interior Ministry security forces have attacked and detained Sunnis.
Ethnic tensions run high in parts of northern Iraq as well, it said.
"The number of estimated sectarian incidents is low when compared to total attacks, but the brutal methods used and the media coverage of these incidents increase concerns that sectarian violence could escalate," the report said.
It also warned that "ethno-sectarian attacks may increase in an effort to provoke reprials."
The report detailed the growth of the Iraqi security forces, which now number 230,000, officials said.
It said 98 Iraqi army battalions are conducting counter-insurgency operations, up by 11 percent from October.
Of those, 53 battalions are considered capable of leading operations with the support of the US military, compared to 36 in October.
The US military has put 37 Iraqi battalions in charge of their own "battlespace," an area that can range in size from a city neighborhood to a rural district, the report said.
However, the sole battalion that was classified as capable of fully independent operations in October has since been downgraded, said Lieutenant General Gene Renuart, of the Joint Staff.
No battalions are currently considered fully capable of operating without the support of the US military.
