Impeachment is unpopular, President Trump is popular, and that’s the best news for Democrats in polling from USA Today/Suffolk.
A majority of 51 percent now oppose impeaching Trump, while only 45 percent disagree. This is a big net-seven point swing for Trump since the last USA Today/Suffolk poll in October, which showed a plurality of 47 percent wanted Trump impeached, while 46 percent said don’t impeach.
After weeks and weeks and weeks of rigged impeachment hearings and billions and billions of dollars spent by the corporate media to push the lie that these “bombshell” hearing proved Trump deserved to be removed from office, this poll — like most of the others — swung in the opposite direction.
In fact, four of the last five polls show the public has turned against impeachment, and that fifth poll is a tie.
Trump also gained a net four points with his job approval rating. What had been 46 to 52 percent approve/disapprove is now a very healthy 48 to 50 percent approve/disapprove.
And this is the good news for Democrats.
The bad news is the 2020 results that show Trump beating every major Democrat candidate, including Slow Joe Biden.
If the 2020 general election were held today, Trump beats everyone…
Burisma Biden 41, Trump 44
Socialist Sanders 39, Trump 44
Cherokee Warren 37, Trump 45
Mean Little Mayor Pete Buttigieg 34, Trump 43
And this is not an outlier poll.
In the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Trump has been steadily gaining on all his rivals. Throughout the year, Biden held a steady double-digit lead over Trump. That lead has now dropped to just six points.
After Bernie led for most of the year, the two newest poll show Trump beating him.
There are six things to keep in mind when it comes to all this early polling.
1) The trend is what matters. Polling is unreliable these days, but trends matter, and right now the trend is with Trump.
2) Trump’s national polling in 2016 was abysmal and he still won because pollsters underestimated his strength (and probably are again) and the presidency is about winning the states, not the deep blue population centers. If Trump is behind two to three points nationally, he’s probably going to win the electoral college and therefore a second term.
3) Trump is stuck in the White House being president, and as I previously pointed out, historic polling proves than an incumbent (even one that loses re-election) always increases his polling numbers by five to ten points when they hit the re-election trail, when they have the chance to get out of the White House and make their case.
4) Trump has a fantastic record of peace and prosperity to run on, and no incumbent has been able to run on that since Bill Clinton in 1996. Barring something unforeseen, Trump’s record will be formidable.
5) There is no superstar in the Democrat field. They are all lacking, which is why an aging, two-time loser who supported the Iraq war and allowed his son to loot Ukraine has barely managed to hang on as the frontrunner.
6) The public is starting to see Trump as a president, as their president, as the American president. It generally takes a while for the public to get used to the new guy, especially after the departure of a popular two-termer like Obama. It took a little longer with Trump because he is a legitimate outsider, because of his unique temperament, and because the media have spent billions to try and keep him from being seen as anything other than a virus, a mistake that must be expelled from the system. But this has failed, primarily because Trump is doing, by any objective measure, a very good job as president.