Poll: Donald Trump Enjoys Five-Point Lead over Joe Biden Nationally

trump leads biden
Mandel NGAN / AFP, Win McNamee/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by five points nationally in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election match-up, according to a Messenger/Harris poll. 

The poll, published on Monday, shows that 46 percent of registered voters back Trump for the nomination, while Biden takes 41 percent, and another 13 percent are undecided. Trump enjoys a near-double-digit advantage among independents, at 42 percent to Biden’s 34 percent. 

Republicans coalesce behind Trump at a stronger rate than Democrats rally for Biden in the hypothetical match-up. Trump earns 86 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats, while 80 percent of Democrats and seven percent of Republicans would vote for Biden. 

The poll comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday that shows Trump has a commanding ten-point advantage over the sitting president, who faces an impeachment inquiry. Trump garnered the support of 52 percent of the respondents in that poll to Biden’s 42 percent. 

The Messenger/Harris poll also asked respondents if both men should run for president, though they both have declared their candidacies and are their respective parties’ clear frontrunners. 

Only 31 percent of registered voters say Biden should run again, while 69 percent say he should not pursue a second term. Even worse for Biden, only 57 percent of Democrats believe he should seek another term, while 43 percent say he should not. 

Regarding Trump, 44 percent say he should run for president, and 56 percent say he should not run. However, he performs substantially better among his own party than Biden in this regard, with nearly three in four Republicans saying he should seek to win back the Oval Office. 

The poll also gauged Trump’s support among registered Republicans versus his competitors in the GOP primary. Of Republicans, 56 percent back Trump for the nomination, while his nearest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), sits 42 points behind at 14 percent. No other candidate reaches double digits, as former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy tie at five percent, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at three percent. 

Former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) tie at two percent, while six more candidates garner one percent.

Harris X sampled 3,015 registered voters from September 13-19, and the margin of error is ± 1.8 percentage points. 


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