Survey: Donald Trump Edges Out Joe Biden in 2024 General Election Matchup

WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES - JULY 26: Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump
Kyle Mazza/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump is edging out President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup, the latest Emerson College survey found.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump has a one-point advantage over Biden, leading him with 46 points to Biden’s 45 points.

Trump’s lead widens by two points when third-party candidates — independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein — are added to the mix. Trump garners 41 percent support to Biden’s 39 percent, and Kennedy follows with five percent support. Both West and Stein receive one percent support each.

This survey also examined the Republican primary race between Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and found Trump leading by 54 points. Trump sees 73 percent support from Republican voters, while 19 percent support Haley.

As Emerson pointed out, “Since last month’s survey which included four additional Republican candidates who have since suspended their campaigns, Trump’s support increased 13 points, from 64% to 77%, and Haley increased 10 points, from 14% to 24%.”

The poll was taken January 26-29, 2024, among 1,260 registered voters. It has a ± 2.7 percent margin of error.

The survey coincides with several others showing Trump leading Biden both nationally and in critical battleground states, as well as with critical demographics, including independents. A recent survey from the Economist/YouGov, for example, showed Trump leading Biden, 81, by four points with independent voters, 38 percent to 34 percent.

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