Will Edge Of Tomorrow be Summer’s latest upset victim?
Last week, Sensei’s call on Maleficent was impressively close, easily beating other prediction sites. Ironically, by posting a low prediction, Sensei was also closer on box office flop A Million Ways To Die in the West (film came in way under projections). Go figure.
This week, another potential box office upset looms.
Sensei’s weekend predictions and revenue results are as follows:
1. The Fault in Our Stars ($45 million)– When this year began, this weekend looked tailor made for Edge of Tomorrow to dominate. Amazing how things change. The Fault in Our Stars features promising newcomer Shailene Woodley (fresh off her hit Divergent), and has been storming social media ever since. A strong social media presence doesn’t guarantee a successful opening (Scream 4 also had a large social footprint, but opened low.) But again, like Maleficent showed, the female demographic will again will be underestimated. The box office frame is strong enough to push this film to a $40+ opening and pull the upset.
2. Maleficent ($28 million) – Critics rated the film low, but audiences gave it high “A” Cinemascore, proving again a large divide between audiences and critics on such projects. Nevertheless, Angelina Jolie pulled another strong opening to hold her status as the film industry’s top box office actress. This week features a battle for those coveted female demographics (which The Fault in our Stars will easily take the majority of). Still, look for an easy break of the $100 million domestic mark.
3. Edge of Tomorrow ($25 Million) – Critics are raving about this one but easily forget we’ve seen the whole “day repeats until result achieved” before in a film called Vantage Point (which opened to $22.8 million in 2008). Or put another way, a Groundhog Day-like concept set during an action film. Not surprisingly, Tom Cruise’s latest looks to post a similar, yet slightly better opening than Vantage Point.
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past ($15 million) – All eyes turn to whether this film can’t out-gross the previous franchise entry, X-Men: The Last Stand. Word of mouth is stronger on this one than The Last Stand, so such a result is achievable.
5. A Million Ways to Die in the West ($6.3 million) – Perhaps Seth MacFarlane casting himself as the lead wasn’t the greatest idea? Film opened to as low as half of initial box office projections. A regular western funeral. The film’s fortunes won’t improve this weekend either.
That’s Sensei’s take. Enjoy the weekend.