Why the Polls are Wrong: Poll Shows Electorate is R+6

While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a  huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.

According to Twitter’s invaluable NumbersMuncher, Rasmussen correctly predicted 2008 would be a D+7 election and incorrectly predicted 2010 would be D+3. (2010 was D+0, or even, so Rasmussen gave an edge to Democrats they didn’t have.)

If the 2012 race is D+2, Romney’s probably going to win. If the race is R+6, Romney’s going to enjoy a landslide.

The most important piece of information in this poll, though, is that Rasmussen’s sample is a monstrous 15,000 likely voter. Moreover, Rasmussen’s Party ID results match similar results found by Gallup and  Pew.

Again, if Rasmussen is anywhere near as correct as he’s been in the past, all of these polls showing Obama holding small leads, are dead wrong. They’re under-sampling Republicans in a major way; predicting an electorate that looks like 2008.

ADDED: In one photo, here’s a look at Rasmussen’s track record.

ADDED: Here are the specifics on the Gallup partisan breakdown. Though they buried the lede, this is all you need to know:

Now Gallup is in the game, and the numbers are brutal. In 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, we’re in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.

If the electorate is 49-43% as Gallup predicts — or R+3 — Romney wins in a landslide. 


Follow  John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC



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