Box Office Predictions: 'Captain America' Edges 'Rio' Sequel, 'Noah' Collapses Again

Box Office Predictions: 'Captain America' Edges 'Rio' Sequel, 'Noah' Collapses Again

This week, Captain America faces a formidable Rio 2 for the top spot.

Recapping last week’s calls. Not bad, only real surprise was Noah dropping even farther than expected.

Sensei’s weekend predictions and revenue results are as follows:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($44 million) – Sensei was right about this one breaking the record for April’s highest opener last week. Film has the momentum to repeat, but will be a tight race. Word of mouth on this film is extremely strong, which could make the difference. Regardless, the Captain will easily break the $150 million domestic mark.

2. Rio 2 ($43 million)– Oh yes, it’s going to be close. This sequel to the 2011 animated hit seems like a easy call, but this film isn’t really one of those breakout franchises. Even Mr. Peabody & Sherman struggled out of the gate with more of a “brand following.” Still, expect a run at a $40+ opening regardless.

3. Draft Day ($12 million)Kevin Costner’s latest has good timing. This sports drama fits in perfectly with anticipation of the real life NFL Draft next month. Unfortunately, the target audience looks to be quite fixed here and won’t produce a breakout opening. Still, expect respectable results.

4. Oculus ($9.7 million)– Great critical reviews for this horror film, but lack of name recognition hurts. The weekend before the Easter holiday doesn’t exactly scream high horror results either.

5. Noah ($8 million) – Yet another big drop for this one. The film’s $125 million production budget will not be reached domestically, and like Muppets Most Wanted (which will struggle to even earn over $3 million this weekend), carries an enormous marketing budget. Definitely not the results the studio was hoping for at this point.

In other calls:

Expect yet another solid weekend for God’s Not Dead and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both will break the $40 million domestic mark. For limited releases, those are impressive results.

Those are Sensei’s calls. Enjoy the weekend.


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