Congressional Republicans lead Democrats in midterm election enthusiasm and generic ballot polling, according to an Emerson survey.
Among registered voters, Republicans lead Democrats by 14 points in enthusiasm (79 – 65 percent). Enthusiasm is an important metric because it indicates turnout levels among voters in November. Turnout is typically the difference between a win and a loss.
Worse for Democrats, younger voters between the ages of 18-29 are not as enthused about the midterm election (57 percent). The younger voting bloc typically sways for Democrats. Thus less interest from a largely Democrat voting bloc suggests Republicans will do very well in the midterms.
When respondents were asked which congressional candidate for which they would vote on a generic ballot, Republicans led Democrats by nine points (50 – 41 percent). The Republicans’ lead has remained stable since November, according to Emerson polling.
The Democrats’ polling numbers are sagging in part due to President Joe Biden’s mismanagement throughout 2021. More than two million illegal aliens have been apprehended at the southern border. Inflation has reached a 40-year-high. Gas prices have climbed by $1.00 since last year. Weekly wages have fallen. Fentanyl deaths have become the leading cause of death among 18-45-year-olds. Supply chain woes have continued. And, Americans suffered embarrassment during the deadly Afghan withdrawal.
Meanwhile, 30 House Democrats have decided to retire from Congress and not run for reelection in November, the most in three decades, according to Punchbowl News. The retirements are important because incumbents have the advantage in general congressional elections.
Republicans are down five seats in the House and one Senate seat. Democrats hope to hold on to their majorities by spending federal pandemic money in local districts to galvanize voters. Biden has requested additional pandemic money from Congress, while establishment Republicans and Democrats are jointly negotiating on further pandemic spending.
“Congress must reenact and expand the [stimulus package’s] guaranteed emergency paid sick and caregiving leave to help workers and rebuild our economy, as we work toward the creation of a permanent paid family and medical leave program for all workers in the long term,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and 13 Democrats have demanded.
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