The fight for New Hampshire’s four votes in the Electoral College is neck-and-neck between Democrat Hillary R. Clinton and her GOP rival Donald J. Trump, according to the WBUR-FM poll conducted Oct. 10 through Oct. 12 with 501 of the state’s likely voters.
Clinton is the choice of 41 percent to Trump‘s 38 percent, after undecided respondents were pressed to make a decision with Libertarian Gary Johnson, 11 percent, and Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein, three percent, according to the poll’s executive summary. The poll carries a 4.4 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.
In the initial questioning, the numbers were the same, except Trump was at 37 percent, which suggests that undecideds may be shy Trump supporters.
WBUR-FM’s previous poll, conducted Sept. 27 through Sept. 29, showed Clinton ahead of Trump with 42 percent to Trump’s 35 percent.
In the 2012 presidential election, President Barack Obama won New Hampshire with 52 percent of the vote over W. Mitt Romney, his Republican rival.
Another positive sign for the Trump campaign was the speech given by First Lady Michelle Obama Thursday in Manchester.
The speech was celebrated in the left-wing media as a stinging rebuke of Trump from Obama’s wife when she criticized the New York City developer for his relationships with women.
But, in the closing weeks of the campaign, sending FLOTUS anywhere is calculated.
In August, Gallup polling showed that the first lady had the highest favorables of anyone in the presidential group of candidates, spouses, or in the current administration, with 64 percent of respondents having a favorable opinion and 32 percent with an unfavorable opinion.
In fact, of all the “presidential” personalities, the president’s wife is considered not only the most popular, but also the least politically-sensitive or overtly political, when she speaks. Much of this is a function of her being less politically engaged.
Thus, the decision to “engage” the first lady is not a light one.
Bottom line: Michelle Obama’s speech against Trump was important, but it could have been given anywhere. If the Clinton campaign sent her to New Hampshire, rather than any other place in the country, they are signalling that New Hampshire is absolutely in play for Trump.