Poll from Firm That Tied Moore and Strange on Eve of GOP Primary Says Alabama Senate General Election a Tie

Roy Moore, Doug Jones
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

CB Polling released a poll Sunday of the Alabama U.S. Senate general election scheduled for December 12 between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones that shows the two are tied, with each receiving 50 percent of the vote:

CB Polling conducted an online Google Consumer Survey of Alabama residents from November 16th-19th. Among those surveyed, 648 declared their intention to vote , 49.72% of respondents indicated they would vote for Doug Jones (D), while 50.28% indicated that would vote for Roy Moore (R). The margin of error is 3.8%.

CB Polling is the same firm that released a poll less than a week before the September 26 Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between Moore and Senator Luther Strange (R-AL), which claimed the two were also tied, and in a dead heat, with each receiving 50 percent of the vote:

CB Polling polled 440 Alabama residents between September 17th and September 19th, 2017 in the match up for the Republican Senate primary in Alabama. Of respondents who intended to vote, there is a tie between incumbent U.S. Senator Luther Strange  and Roy Moore. Luther Strange was appointed by Gov. Bentley for the seat left vacant by Attorney General Jeff Sessions and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.

That earlier poll turned out to be way off the mark.

On September 26, Moore blew out Strange with a 9 point victory in the GOP runoff primary, 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

CB Polling described the methodology used in its most recent poll of Alabama voters on the U.S. Senate general election as follows:

An online Google Consumer Survey of Alabama residents was conducted from November 16th to November 19th, 2017. 1063 survey participants were screened for their likelihood to vote.
648 respondents who indicated they would vote completed the survey. . .
Survey results are then weighted to Census demographic parameters using rim weights.
Weights are capped between .7 and 1.9. The margin of error was ± 3.8% given a 95% confidence interval using the standard formula for calculating sampling error.

The breakdown in the final sample by party affiliation is Republican +22, lower than a recent Opinion Savvy Survey which also showed the race tied (which was Republican +29), but significantly higher than a Fox News Poll that showed Jones with an 8 point lead (which was Republican +6).

You can see the breakdown in the party affiliation in the sample used in the CB Polling poll released on Sunday here:

Democrat 25.50% (155 respondents)
Independent 27.40% (175 respondents)
Republican 47.10% (318 respondents)
NET 100% (648 respondents)

The current Real Clear Politics Average of Polls shows the race in a virtual dead heat, with Jones leading Moore by two tenths of one percent.

In the 2016 Presidential election, President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a margin of 28 points in Alabama, 63 percent to 35 percent.


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