New Poll Shows Roy Moore Up by 7 in Alabama Senate Race Based on Recent Deciders

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A new poll released Friday afternoon by Change Research of the Alabama U.S. Senate special election to be held next Tuesday shows conservative Republican Roy Moore leads liberal Democrat Doug Jones by seven points among likely voters, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Write-in-candidate Lee Busby garnered the support of two percent of poll respondents, while three percent were undecided.

Our new poll shows Roy Moore now ahead 51-44. Moore leads among those who recently decided, 61-22. And the word late deciders most often use in describing how they make their decision? It’s not “allegations” or “teenage” — it’s “Democrat.”

— Change Research (@ChangePolls) December 8, 2017

The momentum in the race seems to be moving in Moore’s direction, according to the poll results.

Among the four percent who say they have decided in the last week, voters are moving to Moore over Jones by an almost three to one margin. Sixty-one percent said they are voting for Moore, while only 22 percent said they are voting for Jones ,and 15 percent are voting for the write-in candidate.

The poll was based on 2,433 interviews conducted online on Tuesday, December 5, making it the most recent measure of voter attitudes in the hotly contested race, which will see precincts open for voting in less than 84 hours.

A poll released by Change Research ten days ago, on November 28, showed Moore with a five point lead. The two point increase for Moore from 49 percent in the earlier poll to 51 percent in the poll released on Friday is significant, as it puts Moore over the critical 50 percent mark.

Party affilation among the sample of likely voters responding was reflective of recent voting behavior in the state: 42 percent Republican, 27 percent Democrat, and 31 percent Independent.

In the 2016 Republican presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a 28 point margin, 63 percent to 25 percent. Virtually all Republicans voted for Trump, virtually all Democrats voted for Clinton, and Independents voted for Trump by a 2-to-1 margin.

Among Trump voters who plan on voting in Tuesday’s special Alabama U.S. Senate election, 82 percent say they will vote for Moore, nine percent say they will vote for Jones, three percent are for the write-in candidate, and five percent are undecided.

The 18 percent of Trump voters who say they will not vote for Moore appear to be Republicans who voted for Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL) in the primary, who was defeated by Moore in a contentious primary runoff in September.

Only fifty-seven percent of Republicans who voted for Luther Strange say they will vote for Moore, while 28 percent will vote for the Democrat Jones. Eight percent will vote for the write-in candidate and six percent are undecided.

Among Clinton voters, 95 percent say they will vote for Jones, three percent say they will vote for Moore, and two percent are undecided.


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