A poll of Minnesota Democrat presidential primary voters released over the weekend shows that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has overtaken former Vice President Joe Biden as the frontrunner in Minnesota, a major development that highlights both Warren’s national surge and Biden’s weakening lead ahead of the first debates.
Warren, at 21 percent, leads Biden’s 20 percent in the Change Research survey, conducted June 8 to June 12. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) comes in third with 19 percent, while home state Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is in fourth at 16 percent. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is next with 11 percent, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) at 4 percent, former Rep. Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (D-TX) at 3 percent, Andrew Yang at 2 percent, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, and former Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Julian Castro all at 1 percent:
2020 Minnesota Democratic Primary:
Castro 1%@ChangePolls 6/8-12
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 16, 2019
The poll surveyed 772 likely Democrat primary voters in Minnesota, part of a broader poll of 1,568 registered voters. The broader poll has a margin of error of 2.5 percent. Change Research’s release does not state the margin of error for the specific Democrat slice of the sample.
Warren leading Biden in a big state like Minnesota, which is a general election battleground, too, is just the latest development in a series of polls that have captured a Warren surge across the country. She has overtaken Sanders for second place right behind Biden in a variety of polls, including surveys in Nevada, South Carolina, two in California, a national survey, and a battleground state survey.
It also comes as President Donald Trump’s campaign is, per a new report in Politico, reconsidering the threat of Warren as the potential eventual nominee.
“President Donald Trump’s reelection machine is setting its sights on a new target, one it had left for dead just a few months ago: Elizabeth Warren,” Politico‘s Alex Isenstadt wrote. “With the Massachusetts senator rising in polls and driving a populist message that threatens to cut into the president’s blue-collar base, the Trump campaign is training its firepower on Warren with an eye toward blunting her momentum.”
Meanwhile, an Axios report out on Monday morning suggests that Biden has a serious problem with Warren rising.
Axios’ Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei wrote that Warren’s polling surge and campaign are “electrifying liberals with her very specific and very liberal ideas — and she’s well-positioned to undermine Biden, win or lose.”
“Warren has the ability to unify the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, especially if she locks arms with AOC in attacking Biden’s more cautious and conventional politics,” they wrote, adding, “Even if she tops out, her politics are much closer to Bernie Sanders or Kamala Harris, so she could help lift another candidate over Biden with her endorsement and support.”
In the report, Allen and VandeHei quote sources close to Biden as saying they “are worried about her rise, and feel they caught a break in not having to face her in the first debate.”
“Avoided her and thus avoided a potential first round TKO,” a described “Biden confidant” told Allen and VandeHei.