Democrat frontrunner Joe Biden (D) holds a narrow lead in Nevada, barely edging out Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), according to a Change Research poll released Friday.
The Change Research poll, conducted August 2-8, 2019, among 439 likely Democrat caucusgoers, found a tight race in the state, as Biden holds a narrow lead with just 26 percent support. Warren followed closely behind with 23 percent support, followed by Sanders with 22 percent. With a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent, the three candidates are statistically tied:
Change Research surveyed 439 self-identified likely Democratic caucus-goers. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 4.7% for the full sample. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, and 2016 caucus and presidential vote.
The survey also shows Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) in a distant fourth with ten percent support. She is followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), Tom Steyer (D), and Beto O’Rourke (D) with seven percent, three percent, and two percent, respectively. The remaining candidates garnered one percent or less:
2020 Nevada Democratic Caucus:
Gabbard 1%@ChangePolls 8/2-8
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 9, 2019
Biden leads the race among Latinx caucus-goers, polling at 30%, an 8-point lead over Sanders (22%) and Harris (22%). The race is closer among white caucus-goers; Warren has the highest support with 27%, followed by Sanders with 24%.
Sanders has a 39-point lead among 18-34 year-old likely caucus-goers in Nevada, with 54%. Biden has the most support among 35-49 and 50-54 year-olds, with 31% and 30%, respectively. Warren has a one-point lead among caucus-goers over 65 with 30%; Biden follows at 29%.
According to the current Real Clear Politics average, Biden holds the lead nationally with 30.8 percent support, 12.5 percent above Warren’s 18.3 percent. Sanders follows with 16.5 percent.