Nevada Poll: Joe Biden Leads Elizabeth Warren by Double Digits

Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks on stage during a forum on gun safety at the Iowa Events Center on August 10, 2019 in Des Moines, Iowa. The event was hosted by Everytown for Gun Safety. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in the 2020 Democrat caucuses in Nevada by double digits, a survey from Gravis Marketing found.

The poll of 382 Democrat caucus-goers found that Biden’s 25 percent is double digits better than Warren’s 15 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) comes in third with 10 percent, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is fourth with 9 percent. A total of 9 percent surveyed are undecided, too, a bigger number than the next-best candidate in fifth place billionaire Tom Steyer–the highest he has been in any survey–with 6 percent. South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg is next with 5 percent, followed by Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) with 3 percent. A number of candidates have 2 percent, including businessman Andrew Yang, Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Michael Bennet (D-CO), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. At 1 percent apiece are Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), former Rep. John Delaney (D-MD), former Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Julian Castro, author Marianne Williamson, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. Former Rep. Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (D-TX) is at 0 percent in the survey.

The Gravis Marketing poll was conducted from August 14 to August 16, and for the Democrat subsample of 382 caucus-goers has a margin of error of 5 percent.

In the broader sample of 926 registered voters, which has a margin of error of 3.2 percent, President Donald Trump, a Republican, actually has a much higher approval rating than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat–perhaps a bad sign for Democrats in their quest to hold Nevada in the 2020 general presidential election. A majority, 53 percent, either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job performance–41 percent of which strongly approve–while only 44 percent either strongly or somewhat disapprove, and 3 percent are uncertain. The “strongly disapprove” number for the president is at just 36 percent, meaning he is performing well above national averages in Nevada according to this survey.

Pelosi, however, is underwater with the Nevada electorate. A majority, 53 percent, either strongly or somewhat disapprove–35 percent strongly–of the job she is doing as Speaker, while just 41 percent either strongly or somewhat approve of her job performance and 5 percent are uncertain. Of that 41 percent that approve of her job performance, only 17 percent strongly approve.

What’s more, in the head-to-head match-ups of Trump versus a Democrat that were polled, the president beats all except Sanders, Biden, or Harris in Nevada–and in each of those cases except for against Biden he is either actually or statistically tied. Against Williamson, Trump leads 48 percent to her 40 percent. Against Booker, Trump leads 46 percent to 44 percent, and against Warren he leads 47 percent to 46 percent. Against Buttigieg, the president leads 46 percent to 42 percent. He is tied with Harris at 45 percent, and only trails Sanders 47 percent to 44 percent–inside the survey’s margin of error. Only Biden holds a lead against Trump outside the margin in this Nevada poll, with the former vice president leading the president 49 percent to 43 percent. These statistics are significant because Nevada is a general election battleground state that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton won in 2016, securing its 6 electoral votes–the only real battleground state she won.

In addition, a majority–55 percent–say they do not want to impeach Trump, while just 45 percent say they do want to impeach the president. On the flip side, 49 percent say Trump is “racist” while 45 percent say he is not–and 6 percent are unsure.

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