A poll released on Friday shows Democrat Dan McCready leading Republican Dan Bishop by four points with less than two weeks before the September 10 special election in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District.
The poll, conducted jointly by Republican polling firm Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, a Democrat polling firm, surveyed 551 likely special election voters for Inside Elections magazine between August 26 and August 28, showing McCready with 46 percent to Bishop’s 42 percent. McCready’s 4-point lead is within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error.
According to the weighted toplines, the party breakdown of poll respondents was Democrat plus 10, with 42 percent of respondents identifying as Democrat and 32 percent identifying as Republican. In contrast, the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District is Republican plus 8.
Among the findings of the Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs poll:
“Bishop and McCready receive similar levels of partisan support (Republicans: 92% Bishop, Democrats: 88% McCready),” the poll found.
Among independent voters, “McCready holds a 16% lead … (46-30%).”
Among the other findings of the poll:
● Looking at the County breakdown of the district—McCready holds a 69-27% lead in Mecklenburg County, while Bishop has the advantage in Union County (51-40%) and the remainder of the district (48-34%).
● McCready leads among voters who are very excited to vote in the Special Election (51-46%), while Bishop leads with somewhat excited voters (45-39%).
● When leaners are included in the ballot test, McCready’s advantage grows to 5%. He has a 2-to-1 advantage with leaners (39-18%).
The results of the Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs poll differ from another poll released earlier on Friday that showed Republican Bishop with a two- to four-point lead over McCready, as Breitbart News reported:
Republican candidate for North Carolina’s ninth congressional district, Dan Bishop, is beating his Democrat rival Dan McCready, according to a poll released Friday.
Internal Republican polling has found Bishop, a North Carolina state senator, is beating McCready from anywhere between two to four points. According to the poll, Bishop was previously down in the polls compared to McCready just a few weeks ago.
In contrast, Democrat party internal polling has McCready up one point, which would suggest the race has become a virtual tie and within each party’s margin of error for their internal polling.
Political operatives in both the Democrat and Republican parties consider the September 10 special election in the Ninth Congressional District a bellwether of what may lay ahead in the 2020 elections.
President Trump is among those very closely watching the progress of the race in this district.
Late Friday, President Trump tweeted his support for Bishop for the second time in as many weeks:
The Great State of North Carolina has EARLY VOTING for a very important Congressional (Ninth) race. Please vote early (now), or on Election Day, September 10th, for Dan Bishop, a great guy. His opponent wants Open Borders, Sanctuary Cities & is weak on Crime, Military & Vets!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 30, 2019
President Trump announced this week that he will hold a rally in the district on Monday evening, September 9, the eve of the special election.