President Trump edges out top Democrat candidates in hypothetical general election matchups, besting Joe Biden (D), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), and tying with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Zogby Analytics results released Monday reveal.
The poll, taken October 1-3, among 887 likely U.S. voters, shows the president edging out all of his potential Democrat challengers, minus Warren, who tied with Trump with 45 percent support. Notably, ten percent said they were “not sure” who they would vote for between the two.
While many Democrats view Biden as the most electable candidate, the survey’s results show Trump defeating Biden 47 percent to 45 percent thanks, in part, to the president closing the gap in support among independent, suburban, and Hispanics voters.
According to Zogby Analytics:
The reason President Trump is winning, barely, in a hypothetical match-up with the former vice president, Joe Biden, is that, in addition to winning with his normal base of men (Trump leads 54% to 39%), white voters (Trump leads 53% to 40%), union voters (Trump leads 62% to 32%), and southern voters (Trump leads 50% to 43%), Trump has also tightened the race with Independents (Biden leads 42% to 36%), suburban voters (Biden leads 49% to 43%), and Hispanics (Biden leads 47% to 43%). Trump is also beating Biden convincingly with two demographics he has recently made inroads with: large city voters (Trump leads 50% to 44%) and Generation X voters age 30-49 (Trump leads 49% to 41%).
Trump also beats Sanders by a two-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent, although Sanders continues to hold an edge with younger voters (18-29) with 56 percent support to Trump’s 37 percent.
The president appears to perform the best against Buttigieg, who has failed to break through the top tier of candidates in the crowded Democrat field. Trump beats him by 11 points – 49 percent to 38 percent – and defeats Harris 47 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.
2020 National GE:
Trump 49% (+11)
Trump 47% (+6)
Trump 47% (+2)
Trump 46% (+2)
Zogby Analytics 10/1-3https://t.co/WhmcT0RyDw
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 23, 2019
The poll emphasizes that 2020 results will largely hinge on voter turnout– a point emphasized in Moody’s Analytics 2020 election forecast.
As Breitbart News reported:
If turnout by Democrats and independents voting against Trump is low to average, Trump easily wins under the models. If it climbs to the historical maximum, Trump would lose under the stock market and unemployment models but still win in the pocketbook model.
The results, or general sentiment of Trump defeating his rivals in hypothetical general election matchups, is reflected in the latest poll from the Economist/YouGov:
% of registered voters who think ___ would beat / lose vs Donald Trump in 2020:
Biden: 39% beat / 44% lose (-4)
Warren: 36 / 46 (-10)
Sanders: 32 / 51 (-18)
Harris: 23 / 55 (-31)
Buttigieg: 21 / 54 (-33)
Booker: 19 / 56 (-37)
O'Rourke: 18 / 57 (-38)
Klobuchar: 15 / 59 (-43)
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) October 23, 2019