Poll: Most Voters Believe President Trump Will Be Reelected in November

Getty Images_AFP_Mandel Ngan (1)
Getty Images/AFP/Mandel Ngan

Most U.S. voters believe President Trump will be reelected in November, a Monmouth University Poll released Tuesday revealed.

The survey, taken February 6-9, 2020, among 827 registered voters, showed that the majority, 66 percent, believe that Trump will “definitely” or “probably” be reelected in November, whereas 28 percent say he will “definitely” or “probably” lose.

Republicans are brimming with confidence, with 59 percent indicating that Trump’s reelection is “definite” and 34 percent saying it is “probable” for a grand total of 93 percent. The survey shows hesitancy among Democrats. Only 11 percent believe their candidate will “definitely” defeat the president, while 44 percent say he or she probably will beat Trump.

“On the other side of the coin, 38% of Democrats actually think it is more likely than not that Trump will win a second term. Just 4% of Republicans think Trump will lose to the Democrat,” Monmouth reported.

While the majority of registered voters believe Trump will win in November, 55 percent believe it is time for someone else to take office, while 42 percent say Trump should be reelected.

Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said:

While most voters want to see Trump turned out of office, his steady ratings through the entire impeachment process and memories of how 2016 turned out suggest that few are willing to bet against him.

Murray added that the chaotic Iowa caucuses “did not exactly inspire confidence in the party’s ability to find someone who can take on the president.”

The survey also found that more Americans are enthusiastic about this presidential election cycle than they were in 2016:

Currently, 39% of American voters say they feel more enthusiastic than usual about the 2020 election, 21% say they are less enthusiastic, and 40% say they feel about the same level of enthusiasm as they have in past elections. In August 2016, 21% were more enthusiastic, 46% less enthusiastic, and 31% about the same. All partisan groups feel more enthusiastic than they did four years ago, including Republicans (47% more enthusiastic now versus 32% in 2016), Democrats (36% now versus 20% in 2016), and independents (34% now versus 15% in 2016).

“Enthusiasm is up compared to 2016, but optimism has split along party lines. These conflicting findings in public opinion seem to reflect the muddled state of the race on the Democratic side right now,” said Murray.

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The survey also asked a subset of 357 Democrat and Democrat-leaning individuals to choose their first choice candidate among the Democrats in the current primary field.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) enjoys a double-digit lead, with 26 percent support to Joe Biden’s (D) 16 percent support — a 14 point drop from the 30 percent support the former vice president saw in January.

Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) tied for third place with 13 percent support each, and Michael Bloomberg (D) followed closely behind with 11 percent support.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Andrew Yang (D) followed with six percent and four percent, respectively. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percent.


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