A solid majority of U.S. voters believe it is unlikely the Senate will convict former President Donald Trump, a Rasmussen Reports survey released on the first day of the impeachment trial revealed.
“How likely is it that the Senate will vote to convict former President Trump of ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’?” the survey, taken February 4 and 7 among 1,000 likely U.S. voters, asked.
Overall, 64 percent cast doubt on a conviction. Of those, 28 percent deemed it “not very likely” and 36 percent chose “not at all likely.” Eleven percent remained confident, calling a conviction “very likely,” followed by 20 percent who said “somewhat likely.” Five percent remain unsure.
Nearly three-quarters of Republicans, 72 percent, said it is either not very likely or not at all likely that the Senate will convict Trump, whom Democrats accuse of incitement of insurrection. Fifty-three percent of Democrats expressed the same view.
The survey also quizzed respondents on their plans to watch the Senate impeachment trial, which began Tuesday at 1 p.m. Nearly one-third, or 32 percent, said they do not plan to watch any of it, followed by 30 percent who said they will watch “some of it,” 21 percent who said “most of it,” and 15 percent who said “all of it.”
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3 percent.
The first portion of Tuesday’s impeachment trial will center around a four-hour debate over the constitutionality of proceeding with the trial, given Trump’s status as a former president. However, the Senate is expected to proceed, as Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-KY) strategic motion, which raised constitutional concerns over the process, demonstrated last month. Nevertheless, the motion also saw Paul’s motion earn support from 45 Republicans — a bad sign for Democrats, who need 17 GOP senators to join their ranks to achieve a conviction.
A January Rasmussen Reports survey showed that most Americans believe the impeachment trial will only serve to cause further division in the country.