Data Analysis: Republican Swing Voter Registration Half Million Away from Democrats Across 5 Battleground States since 2020

The symbols of the Democratic(L) (donkey) and Republican (elephant) parties are seen on di
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Republicans have made serious gains in voter registration, sharply cutting into Democrat advantages across key battleground states since November 2020, according to data from Secretaries of State in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada.

The data, officially reported by Secretaries of State in these key battleground states, show a swing of nearly half a million votes—more than 480,000—toward the Republicans across just five battleground states in voter registration margins.

In Pennsylvania, for instance, back on election day in 2020, the Democrats enjoyed a 685,818 registered voter advantage over Republicans. Now, the GOP has cut that advantage down to just 563,393 registered voters—a swing of 122,425 voters in the Republican direction in the Keystone State. That swing is mostly represented by a drop of more than 200,000 registered Democrats—but also the registering of tens of thousands of new Republicans—in Pennsylvania since 2020. This data is published weekly by the Secretary of State of Pennsylvania, and is available on the government website. The swing is also one and a half times the 80,555 vote margin by which Democrat President Joe Biden defeated now former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania–a hugely positive sign for Trump if he runs again in 2024, and a positive sign for Republicans as they aim to hold the U.S. Senate seat that Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is retiring from and retake the governor’s mansion this year.

Pennsylvania is hardly the only state in which this is happening. According to the latest data as of the end of March from the Florida Secretary of State, Republicans actually outnumber Democrats in the Sunshine State for the first time ever. As of March 31, 2022, Republicans lead Democrats by 111,535 registered voters. The GOP first took the lead last year in 2021, but have expanded that lead significantly this year—important for the reelection prospects of GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis in a state that has been trending more red in recent elections since Trump’s 2016 and 2020 wins there.

Back in 2020, when Trump won the state against Biden, Democrats actually had a lead in voter registration over the GOP by 97,215 voters, according to the Secretary of State’s data. That means that Republicans in Florida have pushed the needle more than 200,000 votes in the GOP direction since then—a total of 208,750 and counting so far, to be precise.

The shift in Florida has been aggressive and profound in recent years, too. Back when DeSantis first won in 2018, Democrats enjoyed a 257,175 advantage among registered voters. And when Trump won in 2016, Democrats led by 330,428. That means since 2018, Republicans have swung the state 368,710 registered voters the GOP way and since 2016 the GOP has swung it 441,963 registered voters its way away from Democrats. In a state where Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by 112,911 votes in 2016—and Democrat Biden by 371,686 votes in 2020—those margins make a huge difference. In down-ticket statewide races, like for governor and U.S. Senate, that could be the difference between a Republican and a Democrat, as now Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) defeated a Democrat incumbent, now former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), by just 10,033 votes in 2018 and DeSantis defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum that year by just 32,463 votes.

In North Carolina, Secretary of State data shows that as of April 16, 2022, the GOP has swung the voter registration advantage nearly 100,000 registered voters its way and away from Democrats in the Tar Heel State. While Democrats still lead in the total number of registered voters, with 2,499,575, a trend similar to Pennsylvania where a swift fall in Democrat registrations and a slight rise in GOP registrations since the November 2020 presidential election represents a swing in the Republican direction of 91,533 registered voters. Back in November 2020, when Trump won North Carolina for the second time, defeating Biden after he previously beat Clinton there, Democrats had a 391,414 registered voter advantage over Republicans. That has, according to the state of North Carolina’s official reporting data as of last week, fallen to a Democrat advantage of just 299,481 registered voters now—something that could spell trouble for Democrat chances of holding onto their U.S. Senate majority as Republicans seek to defend the seat of retiring longtime Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC).

In Iowa, a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, Republicans have seen a swing of more than 42,000 registered voters, 42,188 to be precise, their way–away from Democrats–since the 2020 presidential election. Iowa Secretary of State data on Nov. 2, 2020, showed Republicans with a 20,590 registered voter advantage over Democrats when Trump faced Biden—a lead the GOP has blown open to a 62,778 registered voter advantage over Democrats as of the latest government data published on April 1, 2022. Both parties have lost voters, but the GOP has lost less since the 2020 presidential election.

Nevada, a state that both Biden and Clinton won against Trump despite very close outcomes, has seen a similar swing in the Republican direction since November 2020. Back then, Democrats had a 109,031 registered voter advantage over Republicans in Nevada, according to the state’s Secretary of State data, but now as of March 2022 Republicans have cut that advantage down to just 93,463 registered voters. That represents a swing of 15,568 registered voters in the GOP direction away from Democrats. That swing is nearly half the margin—33,596 votes—that Biden beat Trump by in 2020 there, something that could signal a serious problem for Democrats who seek to defend both a U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in Nevada this year.


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