Betting Market Favors Liz Cheney Losing Republican Primary

Representative Liz Cheney, a Republican from Wyoming, during a hearing of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., US, on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. Whether far-right extremists who attacked the US Capitol were encouraged by or even conspired with then-President Donald …
Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Betting market PredictIt shows Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) will lose the Republican primary on August 16 to former President Donald Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman.

According to the betting odds, Hageman is favored to win by 93 cents on the dollar. Cheney’s odds of winning the primary are only 6 cents on the dollar, dropping from 14 cents on June 14.

In the past 90 days, Hageman’s odds of winning the primary have expanded from 77 cents in May to Cheney’s 20 cents.

Polling reflects Hageman’s betting odds. She is leading in the polls by 28 and 30 points just one month before the election.

Though Hageman is favored to win, Cheney has out-fundraised Hageman by millions. She has raised a total of $13 million and has $7 million cash on hand. In contrast, Hageman has $1.4 million cash on hand and has raised $4 million since launching her campaign.

Hageman’s fundraising numbers are ticking up, however, having raised $1.8 million in second quarter campaign donations in 2022, surpassing her previous fundraising record of $1.3 million in the first quarter.

JACKSON, WY - JUNE 14: Republican congressional candidate Harriet Hageman meets attendees at a rally at the Teton County Fair & Rodeo Grounds on June 14, 2022 in Jackson, Wyoming. Hageman, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is running against Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) in the August 16 GOP primary. (Photo by Natalie Behring/Getty Images)

Congressional candidate Harriet Hageman meets attendees at a rally at the Teton County Fair & Rodeo Grounds on June 14, 2022, in Jackson, Wyoming (Photo by Natalie Behring/Getty Images).

Cheney’s large amount of campaign cash is partly due to Democrat contributions. One of the Democrats’ most prominent donors, film producer Jeffrey Katzenberg, who has funded former President Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s former presidential campaigns, has donated at least $43,000 to Cheney.

Dmitri Mehlhorn, a strategist who advises far-left LinkedIn cofounder and Democrat donor Reid Hoffman, has also supported Cheney’s reelection bid. “Cheney is the most important politician in America right now,” Mehlhorn alleged to the New York Times.

Additional Democrat donors include Google executive Vint Cerf; Jane Fraser, chief executive of Citigroup; and Boston-based billionaire hedge fund manager Seth Klarman, who views himself more aligned with the establishment.

“I strongly support Congresswoman Cheney’s bid for re-election,” Klarman told Times. “I’m resolved to do everything possible to send a strong message by keeping her in Congress. We need to stand behind Liz and send a rebuke to the most extreme factions in the Republican Party.”

In the last few months, Cheney has been spending most of her time in Washington, DC, helping Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) January 6 committee, while Hageman has been crisscrossing Wyoming meeting voters, who have taken notice of Cheney’s absence.

“She doesn’t live here, for starters. She doesn’t really represent us,” voter Sally O’Brien told Yahoo News of Cheney. “She says she’s a constitutionalist, but she doesn’t believe in justice for all, only for the Jan. 6 people.”

Former Cheney donor, Nancy Donovan, who has given more than $35,000 to Cheney’s past campaigns, is now questioning Cheney’s mental state.

“I sit there watching the January 6 hearings and I think: ‘Have you lost your mind?’” she told the Financial Times. “This man [Trump] has every major institution going after him, from the media to the swamp in Washington, DC, and now to have one of his own party do the same thing?”

Hageman has also criticized Cheney for not spending time in the state campaigning.

“Liz Cheney has lost Wyoming. Liz Cheney doesn’t live in Wyoming. She doesn’t represent us,” Hageman told Breitbart News. “She doesn’t represent our values.”

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and Gettr @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. 


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