AZ Poll: Republican Blake Masters Neck and Neck with Democrat Mark Kelly, Lake Expands Lead

Republican Blake Masters is neck and neck with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, while Republican Kari Lake has expanded her lead in the governor’s race, according to a poll.

The Trafalgar Group poll, released Sunday, shows Masters just 1.2 percentage points back of Kelly. Of the likely voter respondents, 45.4 percent say they support Masters, who is backed by former President Donald J. Trump, versus 46.6 percent who back Kelly. Another 5.3 percent are undecided, and only 2.7 percent plan to vote for Libertarian candidate Marc Victor.

New @trafalgar_group #AZSen #Poll (9/14-17) shows race tightening w/ #Kelly clinging to razor thin lead #azpol

46.6% @CaptMarkKelly
45.4% @bgmasters
2.7% @Victor4Senate
5.3%   Und

See Report: https://t.co/LgmMIx8hVx pic.twitter.com/arUAoQ8Zxb

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 18, 2022

The numbers are consistent with a recent Emerson College Polling poll, which found Masters just two points back of the Democrat. Masters has closed the gap in this poll when compared to a Trafalgar Group from late August, which had him more than three points behind Kelly, at 44.3 percent and 47.6 percent, respectively.

Lake’s lead over her Democrat opponent, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, has grown by several points. Exactly half of the respondents (50 percent) say they plan to vote for Lake as opposed to 45.6 percent who back Hobbs, giving the Republican a 4.4-point lead, while another 4.4 percent of likely voters are undecided and up for grabs. Last month’s poll from the Trafalgar Group showed Hobbs within one point of the Trump-endorsed former Fox 10 Phoenix anchor.

New @trafalgar_group #AZGov #Poll (9/14-17) shows #KariLake increasing lead #azpol

50.0% @KariLake
45.6% @katiehobbs
4.4%   Und

See Report: https://t.co/tofZbAR1uE pic.twitter.com/DIPxq40B27

— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) September 18, 2022

The Trafalgar Group gauged the temperature of Arizona’s secretary of state and attorney general races, revealing Republicans hold the lead in both contests. GOP candidate for secretary of state, State Rep. Mark Finchem, holds a more than six-point lead over his Democrat opponent, former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes. Of likely voter respondents, 47.5 percent support Finchem, and 41.1 percent back Fontes.

Republican Abe Hamadeh enjoys a nearly double-digit lead in the attorney general’s contest. Half of the respondents (50 percent) say they are behind Hamadeh, and 41 percent are backing Democrat Kris Mayes.

The Trafalgar Group sampled 1,080 likely voters from September 14-17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.