Poll: Democrat Raphael Warnock Holds Slight Edge in Tight Georgia Runoff Race

ALBANY, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 30: Georgia Democratic Senate candidate U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) speaks during a campaign rally on November 30, 2022 in Albany, Georgia. Sen. Warnock continued to campaign throughout Georgia for the runoff election on December 6 against his Republican challenger Herschel Walker. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty …
Alex Wong/Getty Images

Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) holds a slight edge ahead of the tight runoff race against Republican Herschel Walker, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released this week found.

The survey showed Warnock edging out Walker, leading by two percentage points, or 51 percent to the Republican’s 49 percent.

According to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, “Warnock’s base lies with voters under 50– a 55 percent majority support him for re-election–whereas Walker holds a similar 55 percent majority among voters over 50.”

The survey also found that most, 57 percent, expect Warnock to be reelected. 

“Despite the ballot test being well within the poll’s margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters. About 1 in 5 Republicans expect their nominee to lose. This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win,” Kimball added. 

The survey was taken November 28030, 2022, among 888 Peach State voters and has a +/- 3.2 percent margin of error, making Warnock’s lead within the margin of error:

The survey follows a recent Phillips Academy survey, which also showed a very tight race but Walker taking the edge, leading by one percent:

Ultimately, the final RealClearPolitics survey showed Walker up by 1.4 percent, but it was Warnock who edged out the Republican in the final election results, leading by 0.9 percent. However, neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, resulting in the runoff taking place Tuesday, December 6.

Notably, the final survey from Emerson College Polling/The Hill, released November 3, showed Warnock leading Walker by two percent, or 49 percent to the Republican Senate hopeful’s 47 percent. 

Ultimately, the outcome of the runoff would not alter the balance of power in the Senate, as Democrats have already secured 50 seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote. 

“However, if Walker wins and Republicans reach 50 seats, Democrats would be forced into power-sharing agreements with Republicans and also need perfect attendance and agreement to pass pivotal votes,” as Breitbart News reported. 

Walker has continued to differentiate himself from his Democrat opponent in the days leading up to the race, telling Breitbart News Daily on Tuesday that Warnock has only ever received “money from parishioners and taxpayers.”

“I built a very successful company – over a hundred-million-dollar company – I built with my hands,” Walker said, adding, “all he’s ever done is got money from parishioners and taxpayers, and yet he’s in Dr. King’s church, [and] all he talks about is the color of people’s skin rather than the content of their character.”

“I created a business, [an] over 20-something-year business, a hundred-million-dollar business. I created it by working with my hands. I’ve done so many other things. I spent almost 15 years – every three weeks – at a military base trying to remove the stigma from mental health,” he added. “I did that.”

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