Concerns and speculation are rising as recent surveys — including a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll — show former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a 2024 presidential matchup as Democrats express the desire to see someone else as their nominee, prompting some to say it is “worrisome” for the Democrats.
The Washington Post/ABC News survey found 52 percent overall disapproving of Biden. Of those, 42 percent disapprove “strongly.” Americans also do not appear to have confidence in Biden’s ability to make the “right decisions for the country’s future,” as 68 percent expressed little to no confidence. Of those, 45 percent said they have no confidence in Biden’s ability at all:
2024 National General Election Poll:
Trump 48% (+3)
Biden 45%@washingtonpost/@ABC ~ 895 RV ~ 1/27-2/1https://t.co/jnq4CKIq83
— PollTracker (@PollTrackerUSA) February 6, 2023
The survey then asked Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents if they would prefer to nominate Biden or someone else in 2024. Most, 58 percent, said they would like to nominate someone else, as just 31 percent said they would want Biden. For further perspective, the survey asked the same of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Less than half, 49 percent, said they would prefer someone other than Trump, while 44 percent said they would prefer Trump as the nominee.
“It’s the general consensus that Dems are content with Biden in a Trump rematch. But this poll undermines Biden’s central argument for re-nomination,” former Obama administration official Julián Castro said, highlighting concerns for Democrats from the survey.
“Two years is forever and it’s just one poll, but if he’s faring this poorly after a string of wins, that should be worrisome,” he added:
It’s the general consensus that Dems are content with Biden in a Trump rematch. But this poll undermines Biden’s central argument for re-nomination.
Two years is forever and it’s just one poll, but if he’s faring this poorly after a string of wins, that should be worrisome. https://t.co/n57XDeGtIe
— Julián Castro (@JulianCastro) February 6, 2023
Further, the survey found Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, as 48 percent chose Trump compared to 45 percent who chose Biden. Trump also holds a significant edge among independent voters, specifically, as 50 percent choose him and 41 percent back Biden.
The survey was taken January 27, 2023, to February 1, 2023, among 1,003 U.S. adults and has a +/- 3.5 percent margin of error. The results coincide with a recent Emerson College Polling survey, showing Trump leading among registered voters 44 percent to Biden’s 41 percent. A recent Harvard-Harris 2024 poll also showed Trump leading Biden 46 percent to the Democrat’s 41 percent, triggering speculation and concern surrounding the support — or lack thereof — Biden would have in 2024.
Bill Kristol shared remarks from James Carville, who said, “Well, right now it’s pretty clear he [Biden] intends to run, but you can always change your mind,” bringing up Biden’s age and predicting that it could be a “huge” issue for him.
He added further perspective, explaining that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) — all in their 80s — are “younger than Biden would be at the end of his second term, probably younger than mid-second term.”
“And I think the age issue is going to be huge…Could we please find somebody under 75 to be our president? Just for the fun of it, okay?” he asked:
Carville: "Well, right now it’s pretty clear he [Biden] intends to run, but you can always change your mind. And I think the age issue is going to be huge…Could we please find somebody under 75 to be our president? Just for the fun of it, okay?"https://t.co/pSqEG45XCW pic.twitter.com/5KaO54wIur
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) January 11, 2023
Even Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) last year refused to commit to backing Biden in 2024, pointing to the generational differences and need for more diversity in Congress.
“Our party is changing, our party is dynamic, and millennials are deeply underrepresented in Congress compared to baby boomers and gen-xers back when they were our age, frankly,” she said during an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union.
“At the end of the day, we need to have a generational shift in the United States Congress in order to have a policy shift in the United States Congress,” she continued, refusing to commit to supporting Biden.
“I’m focused on winning this majority right now and preserving a majority this year in 2022,” she said at the time, adding of supporting Biden, “We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.”
“But I think if the president has a vision and that’s something we’re all certainly willing to entertain and examine when the time comes,” she said, adding that “we should endorse when we get to it.”
Meanwhile, moderate Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is not overtly ruling out challenging Biden in the upcoming election, stating that he does not know what his next chapter will be — another potential sign of Biden lacking Democrat unity behind his expected reelection bid:
Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin won’t rule out challenging Biden for the Democrat nomination for president in 2024. pic.twitter.com/pJRFWQwnoe
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) February 7, 2023
The surveys come ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address, taking place Tuesday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. A recent Gallup survey found that less than a quarter of Americans are satisfied with the current state of the union, while 76 percent remain dissatisfied.
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