Poll: Trump Holds Commanding Lead over Potential Primary Opponents, Leads Biden in Hypothetical Match-Up

(INSET: Joe Biden) Former President Donald Trump prepares to speak at a rally at the Canyo
Mario Tama, Alex Wong/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election rematch and is the clear-cut front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to a poll.

The Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday shows that 44 percent of registered voter respondents would vote for Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election, while 41 percent would support Biden. Trump and Biden have essentially swapped positioning compared to Emerson College’s November 22 poll, in which 41 percent of respondents said they would back Trump and 45 percent said they would vote for Biden.

Interestingly, Biden’s approval rating has surged five points to 44 percent since the November poll, but he remains underwater as 48 percent of respondents say they disapprove of his performance as president. Trump began releasing a series of videos detailing his populist platform on a variety of issues in early December, which has coincided with his gains on Biden and his favorability surge documented in a recent Economist/YouGov poll.

Emerson also gauged a potential general election match-up between Biden and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who has constantly polled second to Trump in GOP primary polls. In that race, Biden holds a razor-thin advantage over the Florida governor, at 40 percent and 39 percent, respectively.

While Trump leads Biden by a slim margin in a hypothetical general election contest, he dominates the rest of the potential GOP primary field. Of “Republican voters” surveyed, 55 percent back Trump in his quest for the nomination, placing him 26 percentage points above his closest competitor, DeSantis, at 29 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence sits in third place with six percent of the participants’ support, followed by Former U.S. Ambassador to United Nations Nikki Haley at three percent. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo all register at one percent of support.

Emerson College Polling sampled 1,015 registered voters between January 19-21, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percent. “It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced,” the polling outfit noted.


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