Poll: Trump Gains Majority Support in Crowded Hypothetical 2024 Field

DALLAS, TEXAS - AUGUST 06: Former U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to speak at the Con
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Former President Donald Trump has majority support in the crowded, hypothetical 2024 Republican primary field, this week’s Morning Consult survey found.

The survey reveals that Trump has made gains in terms of support over the last week, passing the majority threshold. At the end of February, Trump saw 50 percent support. That has increased three percent, to 53 percent, this week.

No other potential or formal challenger comes close. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falls 25 percent behind, garnering 28 percent support. That reflects a two-point drop from the 30 percent support he garnered at the end of February. In other words, the gap between Trump and DeSantis has jumped from 20 percent to 25 percent in less than a month.

Meanwhile, Nikki Haley, who formally jumped into the presidential race last month, experienced a two-point dip since announcing, falling from six percent support to four. Former Vice President Mike Pence comes in with seven percent support, and former Rep. Liz Cheney comes in with two percent support. 

Former President Donald J. Trump speaks during on the third and final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference CPAC held at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center on Saturday, March 04, 2023, in Fort Washington, MD. (PJabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty)

Every other candidate listed — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and Sen. Tim Scott — garnered one percent. Vivek Ramaswamy, the only other GOP candidate outside of Trump and Haley to formally join the race, has garnered zero percent support. 

According to the survey, Trump still stands as the second choice candidate for a plurality of DeSantis voters, as 47 percent chose him, compared to 14 percent who choose Haley. Pence followed (11 percent) and Scott (5 percent) trailed him.

Watch as Nikki Haley is heckled by Donald Trump’s supporters at CPAC: “We love Trump!”

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Similarly, 48 percent of Trump supporters chose DeSantis as their top second choice. 

The survey also found Trump with the strongest favorability (80 percent) in the crowded field, followed by DeSantis with 66 percent, although 11 percent said they have never heard of the Florida governor, possibly contributing to his lower figure.

The survey, reflecting the three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 Republican primary voters, has a margin of error of either +/- 1 percent or +/- 2 percent.

The survey marks the trend of Trump not only garnering double-digit support in GOP primary polls but taking a majority of the support. 

An  Emerson College survey released at the end of February, for instance, showed Trump boasting a 30-point lead over his closest potential challenger with 55 percent support total. A Premise Data survey released last month also showed Trump with well over 50 percent support.


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