Harvard Poll: Most Voters Say Trump Indictment Is Election Interference, Believe He’ll Be Acquitted

Former President Donald Trump prays with pastor Mario Bramnick, third from right, and othe
AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Majorities of registered voters believe that special counsel Jack Smith’s indictment of former President Donald Trump is “politically motivated” and election interference, according to a Harvard/Harris poll. 

A portion of the poll, which was conducted after Trump’s arraignment, gauged public perception of the 37-count indictment relating to classified documents Trump allegedly took to Mar-a-Lago at the end of his presidency. 

This image contained in a court filing by the Department of Justice on Aug. 30, 2022, and redacted in part by the FBI, shows a photo of documents seized during the Aug. 8 search by the FBI of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. The Justice Department says it has uncovered efforts to obstruct its investigation into the discovery of classified records at former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate (Department of Justice via AP).

Of the registered voter respondents, 55 percent believe that the indictment is “politically motivated” versus 45 percent who find it “valid.” 

Similarly, 56 percent of the participants categorize the indictment as “interference by the Department of Justice in the 2024 elections,” and only 44 percent see it as “the fair application of the law”: 

Moreover, the majority of respondents, 57 percent, believe the 45th president will be acquitted on the charges, the vast majority of which fall under the Espionage Act of 1917. 

The poll also asked voters about President Joe Biden’s documents case – where classified materials from his time as vice president have been located at his personal residence and the Penn Biden Center in Washington, DC – as well as Hillary Clinton’s email scandal. 

A full 80 percent of Democrats support the Justice Department's appointment of a special counsel to investigate President Joe Biden's mishandling of classified documents, a CNN poll found Wednesday.

A full 80 percent of Democrats support the Justice Department’s appointment of a special counsel to investigate President Joe Biden’s mishandling of classified documents, a CNN poll found Wednesday (Wodicka/ullstein bild via Getty Images, Andrew Harnick/AP).

A majority of 65 percent of respondents believe Biden “mishandled” classified material, while 72 percent think Clinton did, with 69 percent saying she “obstructed justice” by acid-washing her emails. 

                                    Hillary Clinton (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

The polling outfit asked, “Do you think indicting a former president for taking classified documents after leaving office, something done by Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and other senior officials, is a fair application justice or selective prosecution?”

More than half of the participants, 53 percent, say that it is a “selective prosecution,” while a minority of 47 percent think the law is being applied evenly.  

Despite most believing he will be acquitted, the majority of registered voters sampled think the DOJ has a “strong case” to varying degrees against Trump, versus 42 percent who think it is “weak.” 

And while a plurality of 44 percent think he is “probably guilty … and should be convicted,” 30 percent think he “is probably innocent,” while another 26 percent say he may be guilty, but the indictment should never have been pursued “because it is too political and interferes with the 2024 election.”

The poll also shows that Trump is dominating the primary field and holds a six-point advantage over Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup. 

The Harvard/Harris poll sampled 2,090 registered voters June 14-15. A margin of error was not specified. 


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