Harvard Poll: Donald Trump Leads Biden by 6, Towers over Primary Field After Indictment

trump in washington
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Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump beats President Joe Biden by six points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup and dominates the Republican primary field in the latest national Harvard/Harris poll. 

The poll, which was conducted following Trump’s arraignment on Tuesday on a 37-count federal indictment, shows that 45 percent of registered voters would back him over Biden, who draws 39 percent of support. Another 15 percent are undecided:

The 45th president consolidates the base of his party more successfully than Biden, earning 86 percent of the GOP demographic to Biden’s 77 percent of the Democrat population.

More than one in ten Democrats back Trump, while one in twenty Republicans support Biden. Trump holds a four-point advantage with independents, at 38 percent to 34 percent, with 28 percent up for grabs. 

He also enjoys a 47 percent to 40 percent advantage in a hypothetical contest with Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump’s chief rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), bests Biden also, but by a much tighter margin of 41 percent to 40 percent, while 19 percent would be undecided. Biden does better with Democrats than DeSantis does with Republicans, at 78 percent to 77 percent. 

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at a meeting of the White House Competition Council at the White House on September 26, 2022 in Washington, DC. Biden spoke on his Administration’s actions to lower inflation, reduce prices for consumers and raise wagers for workers. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a press conference, Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, in Miami. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Like Trump, DeSantis takes one in ten Democrat voters and has a four percent advantage with independents.

In a hypothetical matchup with Harris, he wins 42 percent to 40 percent. 

Regarding the GOP primary, Trump posts his best performance yet in Harvard/Harris’s monthly polls. If the primary were today, 59 percent of Republicans would vote for him, placing him 45 percentage points ahead of DeSantis at 14 percent:

The Florida governor actually lost ground compared to last month’s poll, taken before his campaign launch, when he held 16 percent support. The 45th president moved up one percent month-over-month. 

In a hypothetical head-to-head, Trump leads DeSantis 67 percent to 33 percent.

DeSantis trump

Former U.S. President Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower to meet with New York Attorney General Letitia James for a civil investigation on August 10, 2022, in New York City (Photo by James Devaney/GC Images). // Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis looks on before the start of a game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida Gators at TIAA Bank Field on October 29, 2022, in Jacksonville, Florida (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images).

What’s more, former Vice President Mike Pence, who officially announced his candidacy in June, has climbed from four points support in May’s poll to eight points this month. He is now just six points behind DeSantis in this survey. 

Rounding out the field, four percent would back former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has three percent support. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Gov. Chris Christie tie at two percent, while Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), who just announced last week, and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) did not secure a point of backing.

President Donald Trump speaks during the National Space Council meeting in the East Room of the White House on June 18, 2018 in Washington,DC. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) // Inset: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (Mel Evans/AP Photo)

President Donald Trump speaks during the National Space Council meeting in the East Room of the White House on June 18, 2018, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) // Inset: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (Mel Evans/AP Photo)

Additionally, three in four Republicans think Trump will be the nominee. 

The Harvard/Harris poll sampled 2,909 registered voters between June 14-15. A margin of error was not specified. 

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