Representative-elect Clay Fuller’s (R-GA) arrival in Washington will give Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) another reliable vote, but the new margins will not give Republicans the breathing room they would like.
The numbers are not as straightforward as they appear and will continue evolving over the weeks ahead.
With Fuller’s swearing in pending, Democrats hold 214 seats while Republicans hold 217 or 218 seats, depending on how one does the math.
Former Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley (CA) formally dropped his party affiliation in March to become an independent, meaning there are now only 217 official Republicans in the House.
While he remains a member of the Republican conference, giving Johnson 218 members, the frayed relationship might not hold, with Republicans already stripping Kiley of committee assignments after his defection.
Kiley, running in a more difficult district for Republicans after Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) successful mid-decade redistricting, is positioning himself as more of a centrist, meaning he is much more likely to buck Johnson on critical future votes as he appeals to Californians who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
But Johnson has an even bigger headache.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has consistently broken with his party and President Donald Trump, triggering the president to back a primary challenger in veteran Ed Gallrein.
Massie is all but assured to break with Johnson and Trump on consequential votes, including on government funding and budget reconciliation.
The tenuous margin Johnson currently holds means he could lose only one vote and still pass legislation without any Democrat support, since tie votes result in a measure’s defeat. Massie is almost a given nay vote, meaning Kiley — or any other Republican — could thwart the Republican agenda.
But Fuller, expected to be sworn in Monday or Tuesday, will give Johnson 219 in his conference to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’s (D-NY) 214.
The welcomed addition means Johnson and Republicans now have a two-seat cushion, as losing Massie in addition to Kiley or another Republican would result in a 217 to 216 victory for Johnson.
However, that math assumes all members vote, an increasing rarity in this Congress, which has seen a historic number of members opt against reelection. Johnson has repeatedly cajoled or even berated absent members to return to Washington to cast important votes.
Yet even those numbers will not last long. Once Fuller is seated, two House vacancies will remain.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigned in November after winning election to the governorship in New Jersey. On April 16, voters are projected to send another Democrat to Washington to replace her.
A Democrat victory in New Jersey will mean 215 Democrats to 219 members of the Republican conference — if Kiley remains a member.
Johnson’s cushion once again will revert to one.
The additional vacancy resulted when Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) passed away unexpectedly in January. The primary to replace him will take place June 2, and if no candidate receives a majority, the runoff will coincide with the general election on August 4 — one week into a five-week recess period for the House.
Republicans are likely to retain LaMalfa’s seat, although the new district lines mean a Democrat is likely to represent the newly drawn district in the next Congress.
Other unexpected vacancies are possible, and rumors of additional Republican departures mid-Congress have abounded.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a moderate who is retiring at the end of this Congress, has been a consistent target of rumors, although he has said he intends to serve out his remaining term. And Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL), who announced his retirement earlier this year, is battling serious health issues, with Trump announcing in March that Dunn had received an initial prognosis that he would be “dead by June.”
The uncertainty adds to Johnson’s headaches and could derail the remaining items on the Trump legislative agenda, which include, at minimum, funding the Department of Homeland Security and reauthorizing the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
Fuller’s seat in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District opened when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) opted to quit in the middle of her third term, prolonging her official resignation for weeks after her announcement, which assured she hit five years in government service to the day and earned herself a government pension.
Bradley Jaye is Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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