Virginia’s Legislative Elections ‘Test Case for 2024’ on Abortion

Fetus in Utero
Leptospira/Getty Images
Katherine Hamilton

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has heavily campaigned for state Republicans on a 15-week abortion limit ahead of legislative elections on Tuesday — an effort meant to combat Democrats’ multi-million dollar campaign to paint their opponents as extremists.

Virginia Republicans are hoping a 15-week abortion limit — with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother — reflects a consensus — a limit that would stop abortions later in pregnancy and contrast Democrats’ radical push for unfettered abortion access at taxpayers’ expense. Such a limit would, in reality, not apply to the more than 93 percent of abortions that take place before 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Democrats, looking back on the 2022 midterms and the success of abortion ballot measures across the country, have worked to frame the Virginia elections as the next referendum on “abortion rights,” with all 140 seats across the state House and Senate up for grabs and suburban districts making up key battleground seats. Notably, abortion has been mentioned in 42 percent of ads aired by Democrat candidates through October 17, compared to just three percent aired by Republican candidates, according to AdImpact. 

In Virginia, the governorship and the House are controlled by Republicans, and Democrats hold a narrow majority in the Senate. Each race will play a role in the state’s balance of power going forward, with Democrats hoping to keep the Senate and take the House and Republicans hoping to win majorities in both chambers — achieving a red trifecta. 

Abortion is currently available in the state through the second trimester and, under certain conditions, in the third trimester, and Virginia Democrats have been energized on the issue since the fall of Roe. Frank Cannon, chief political strategist for leading pro-life organization Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, looks to Republicans’ push for a 15-week limit in Virginia as a “fascinating test case for 2024.”

“Abortion is the issue that [Democrats] think will be the silver bullet to turn Virginia, which is nominally a blue state anyway, back to the blue team,” Cannon said during a virtual press call. “In 2023, the Republican governor has decided to take a stand on contrasting the extremism of the Democrats with his idea of a 15-week bill.”

“Now, the argument is, will the 15-week proposal actually provide the contrast that shows that Republicans are willing to try to get to consensus in Virginia on something that a majority of the voters can agree on? Or can the Republican position be demonized and turned into a point of extremism?” he said. “This is what the entire battle is about — both sides are claiming that the other is extreme.” 

“I think it’s important that you look at Virginia as a potential bellwether,” he added. 

Democrat pollster Celinda Lake told NPR that Democrat candidates have been “very, very disciplined about not getting into the weeds” on the issue of abortion. 

“Because for voters, there’s a fundamental freedom and right at stake here. Fifteen-week bans, six-week bans, people get very confused about that — people aren’t very good at math or biology, as it turns out,” she said. “People are like, ‘I don’t want to hear about all of this gobbledygook. I want to hear — do you support people’s fundamental freedom to make these health care decisions for themselves?”

In the larger pro-life movement, many activists reject the concept of a 15-week limit because it allows most abortions to continue and ignores the premise of the movement, which is that life begins at conception and, therefore, must be protected at all stages.

“A national 15-week abortion prevention act is not what the pro-life movement wants or should be working towards. Other nations have shown us that once such a law is passed, it’s basically impossible to change & almost ALL abortions would still be permitted,” President of Students for Life Kristan Hawkins posted to X in response to an article about Youngkin’s push for a 15-week limit.

“The GOP must refuse to hide their head in the sand on abortion & go on the offense about Democrats’ abortion in all 9 months extremism,” she continued. “And it must stop promoting laws that would allow more than 90% of abortions to continue. They do both at their own peril.”

“A 15 week ban is not the consensus of the prolife movement,” wrote Abby Johnson, a former Planned Parenthood clinic director turned pro-life activist and current CEO of And Then There Were None Ministry. “I don’t even know where this 15 week number came from. It’s an arbitrary line that means nothing.”

“Babies aren’t more human at 15 weeks,” Johnson added. “They aren’t more valuable at 15 weeks. Either we believe that life in the womb has value or we don’t. All life in the womb…not just life after 15 weeks.”

Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.

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