Kentucky, Wisconsin, Virginia Enjoy Best Odds Entering March Madness

Four of the last six years the No. 1 Value Add player has led his team to the title. The two exceptions were when Kemba Walker finished No. 2 in 2011 and led UConn to the title, and when No. 1 Trey Burke’s Michigan team lost to the 2013 Louisville team, one of only three schools to ever have three of the top 30 Value Add players (Duke 2010 and this year’s Kentucky are the other two).

It will be hard for the No. 1 Value Add player through Sunday’s games, Delon Wright (Utah) to make it five of seven years, but No. 2 Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin) and No. 3 Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky) have a great shot. In fact, it is rare for a team to even make the Final Four without either one of the top few Value Add players, two of the Top 50, three of the Top 100 and/or John Calipari or Tom Izzo as their coach.

The following are the teams with the best chance of making the Final Four this season based on this history and their top three Value Add players (Anderson was in the Top 10 before his injury, so Virginia’s chances are based on him coming back):

F4 Chance	Team	Rnk	1st Value Add	Rnk	2nd Value Add	Rnk	3rd Value Add
1	Kentucky	3	Towns	7	Cauley-Stein	17	Booker
2	Wisconsin	2	Kaminsky	39	Hayes	83	Dekker
3	Virginia (w/Ander.)	36	Gill	46	Brogdon	86	Anderson (top 10 Bef Inj)
4	Duke	25	Okafor	27	Cook	41	Jones
5	Gonzaga	16	Pangos	20	Wiltjer	206	Sabonis
6	Arizona	37	McConnell	90	Hollis-Jefferson	100	Johnson
7	Utah	1	Wright	73	Taylor	263	Poeltl
8	Kansas	33	Mason	52	Ellis	138	Oubre
9	Villanova	42	Hilliard	111	Ochefu	158	Hart
10	Michigan St.	120	Trice	154	Valentine	191	Dawson

Ten other teams are close based on their top three players – in alphabetical order Baylor, Davidson, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Providence, St. John’s, Stanford, and Wichita State.

Historically, Villanova seems the least likely to make the Final Four of the teams that look to possibly be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed this year. However, Jay Wright’s 2009 Villanova team was similar and one of the other six to make the Final Four without the Value Add credentials.

Utah and Michigan State are not considered in a class with the other eight on this list, but Utah will ride Wright as far as they can to try to follow UConn (2014 No. 1 Napier), Kentucky (2012 No. 1 Anthony Davis), Duke (2010, No. 1 Scheyer), and UNC (2009 No. 1 Lawson) to the title. In addition, Michigan rode No. 1 Trey Burke to Runner-Up in 2013. Going back one year further Mario Chalmer’s was No. 4 in 2008 for the champs from Kansas.

Michigan State does not have a top 100 player, but with three top-200 players Izzo’s magic could be enough. In 2005, 2009, and 2010 he took Spartan teams without a single top 50 player to the Final Four. Calipari accomplished similar feats with Memphis State and two Kentucky teams.

As the first team to have three of the top 17 players as well as Calipari as their coach, Kentucky is the biggest favorite ever except for perhaps the 2010 Duke team, which had the top two Value Add players in Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler and the 23rd best player in Nolan Smith. Duke went onto win their first five games of the tournament by an average score of 73-56 before surviving to take the title when a last second shot by Butler fell off the rim in what would have been one of the greatest upsets in history.

The following are the 48 Final Four teams of the tempo-free era, and the ranking of each team’s top three players in the Value Add historic database, starting with the 2003 season that included Syracuse’s Carmelo Anthony and Marquette’s Dwyane Wade. Only six of 48 teams have not had one or the other of those factors going for them. A review of the all-time Value Add database shows the following rankings for the top three players of each Final Four team:

Year	Final Four Teams	1st Val Add	2nd	3rd	Result
2003	Syracuse	7	36	41	Champ
2003	Kansas	14	19	101	Runnerup
2003	Texas	16	90	159	Final Four
2003	Marquette	3	39	115	Final Four
2004	Connecticut	11	12	251	Champ
2004	Georgia Tech	22	206	250	Runnerup
2004	Duke	13	21	38	Final Four
2004	Oklahoma St.	16	45	56	Final Four
2005	N. Carolina	12	34	80	Champ
2005	Illinois	14	15	26	Runnerup
2005	Michigan St.	65	136	145	Final Four
2005	Louisville	27	82	89	Final Four
2006	Florida	10	55	93	Champ
2006	UCLA	43	52	188	Runnerup
2006	George Mason	82	189	345	Final Four
2006	LSU	14	34	36	Final Four
2007	Florida	20	37	75	Champ
2007	Ohio St.	4	24	206	Runnerup
2007	UCLA	9	59	79	Final Four
2007	Georgetown	2	13	62	Final Four
2008	Kansas	4	71	169	Champ
2008	Memphis	59	119	141	Runnerup
2008	N. Carolina	3	53	66	Final Four
2008	UCLA	2	38	62	Final Four
2009	N. Carolina	1	17	42	Champ
2009	Michigan St.	63	116	402	Runnerup
2009	Villanova	93	176	270	Final Four
2009	Connecticut	11	98	190	Final Four
2010	Duke	1	2	23	Champ
2010	Butler	22	105	196	Runnerup
2010	W. Virginia	8	31	116	Final Four
2010	Michigan St.	62	234	242	Final Four
2011	Connecticut	2	32	92	Champ
2011	Butler	22	225	226	Runnerup
2011	Kentucky	62	65	120	Final Four
2011	VCU	89	98	293	Final Four
2012	Kentucky	1	38	59	Champ
2012	Kansas	9	29	36	Runnerup
2012	Louisville	39	72	220	Final Four
2012	Ohio St.	6	22	63	Final Four
2013	Louisville	9	28	30	Champ
2013	Michigan	1	66	79	Runnerup
2013	Wichita St.	167	193	252	Final Four
2013	Syracuse	15	42	46	Final Four
2014	Connecticut	1	109	145	Champ
2014	Kentucky	43	58	119	Runnerup
2014	Florida	28	51	54	Final Four
2014	Wisconsin	14	38	79	Final Four