Duke Tops Kentucky With Average 5.5 Future NBA Players Per Season

Jayson Tatum, Chris Silva
AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt

Four Duke 1st Round Draft picks play Summer League with guaranteed NBA contracts bring the total to 38 Duke players in the Value Add historical database who made the NBA, and the average Duke team since 2001-02 boasted a national best 5.5 future NBA players per season.

Kentucky tops Duke with 44 future NBA players in the database—including the greatest Value Add player in Anthony Davis, but because so many of their future NBA players were “one-and-dones,” they average a second best 4.9 future NBA players per season. The list of the top 50 teams appears below.

Kentucky’s three draft picks tied them with UCLA and Oregon, and behind only Duke. However, Oregon’s picks were all between the No. 38 and No. 45 players taken—where draftees only have about a 50-50 chance of stepping on an NBA Court. Jordan Bell, Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks will all be fighting for their lives—though a nice contract in Europe is a great Plan B for any who do not make it. See this great study in 82 Games on who likely each pick from No. 1 to No. 60 is likely to make the league.

The Value Add Basketball historical database starts with the 2001-02 college basketball season, and but entering “NBA” in the search field under notes, you can search all rosters for the past 16 seasons for all future NBA players. In the case of 2017 players, we assumed the top 40 draft picks would make the NBA (more than 2/3rds make it, while 41st and lower are much less likely to see an NBA court) but will adjust after final rosters are announced.

Rnk Top 50 Team Ave Future NBA Players 2002 to 2017
1 Duke 5.5 (88 total player seasons)
2 Kentucky 4.9 (79 total player seasons)
3 Kansas 4.9 (78 total player seasons)
4 North Carolina 3.8
5 UCLA 3.7
6 Syracuse 3.3
7 Arizona 3.1
8 Washington 2.8
9 Florida 2.7
10 Texas 2.4
11 Connecticut 2.4
11 Michigan St. 2.4
13 Notre Dame 2.3
14 Louisville 2.1
14 Marquette 2.1
16 Michigan 2.0
17 Louisiana St. 1.8
17 Wisconsin 1.8
19 Georgia Tech 1.8
19 Gonzaga 1.8
19 Memphis 1.8
22 Oklahoma St. 1.7
22 Villanova 1.7
24 Virginia 1.6
25 Florida St. 1.6
25 Georgetown 1.6
25 Maryland 1.6
28 Illinois 1.5
28 Indiana 1.5
28 Southern California 1.5
31 Purdue 1.4
31 Vanderbilt 1.4
33 Stanford 1.4
34 Xavier 1.3
35 Baylor 1.3
35 Temple 1.3
37 Ohio St. 1.2
37 Oregon 1.2
39 Virginia Commonwealth 1.1
40 Alabama 1.1
40 Providence 1.1
40 Virginia Tech 1.1
40 Wake Forest 1.1
44 Boston College 1.0
44 Colorado 1.0
44 North Carolina St. 1.0
44 Pittsburgh 1.0
44 Tennessee 1.0
44 Texas A&M 1.0
44 Wichita St. 1.0

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