Pioneering political pollster Pat Caddell told Breitbart News that the Aug. 9 Breitbart/Gravis national presidential poll revealed places where Republican nominee Donald J. Trump can pick up support from parts of the electorate usually associated with the Democrats and assigned to the Democratic nominee Hillary R. Clinton.
Two-thirds of the electorate see America as either off-track or seriously off track, said Caddell, who reviewed the poll of 2,832 likely voters conducted by Gravis Marketing, a Florida-based firm that used automated telephone calls and weighted the sample by voting patterns. The poll carries a 1.8 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.
In the top line results, Democratic nominee Clinton leads in a four-way contest with 42 percent of the vote, compared to Trump with 37 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson with ninw percent, and three percent for Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein. But, Caddell told Breitbart News, by asking Americans if the United States was on or off track, the poll exposes what is going on in the electorate under the surface.
Caddell, now a Fox News Insider and commentator, forever changed the role of the campaign pollster with his interpretation of the electorate for the 1972 McGovern campaign. In 1976, Gov. James E. “Jimmy” Carter listened to him. In 1980, President Carter did not. In the next cycle, he convinced Sen. Gary Hart (D.-Colo.) to model his presidential campaign after the Jimmy Stewart character in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, which connected with voters enough to bring Hart within a breath of stealing the 1984 Democratic nomination from Vice-President Walter F. Mondale.
The pollster said that in the poll’s cross tabs, Independents and Republicans are at 70 percent and 88 percent saying the country is on the wrong track or seriously off on the wrong track.
“In a post convention switch, Democrats are 52 percent right direction and 48 percent wrong track or seriously wrong track– 21 percent of Democrats think country seriously off track,” he said.
“There are groups where Trump needs to improve his support that are negative on the country’s direction including moderates, 63 percent; conservatives, 86 percent; Hispanics, 52 percent; blacks, 55 percent; 18-29 year-olds, 78 percent;
and women, 63 percent,” he said.
Caddell said it is significant that 44 percent of women told the survey that the country was seriously off-track.
Another interesting result from the poll is that while in the overall sample population, Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 37 percent, he said. “Among respondents, who ‘always vote,’ Clinton’s lead over Trump tightened to three points, 41 percent to 38 percent and Trump leads by four points with Independents.”
Both Clinton and Trump lose 12 percentage points of the party’s voters to the other, he said.
“But, only two percent of Democrats are undecided and nine percent of Independents are undecided and 11 percent of Republicans are undecided,” he said.