Virginia Poll: Romney by Five, Leads on Immigration

A Roanoke College poll of Virginia voters found Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by five points among likely voters and 13 points (54%-41%) using a more stringent screen for likely voters.

This other standard includes only “those registered voters who said they were very likely to vote in November, had voted in 2008, and had thought a lot about the Presidential campaign.” Further, Romney leads among independents and even leads Obama by four points on the issue of immigration. 

Romney leads Obama by 26 points among independents (59% – 33%) and by 18 (53%-35%) among “those who made their vote decision after one or more of the debates.”

Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, said the momentum is on Romney’s side and “Romney’s numbers have improved dramatically” over the past month, which Wilson attributed to the former Governor’s strong debate performances. 

“What a difference a month can make,” Wilson said. “Governor Romney made up a lot of ground during and after the debates.”

Romney (49% favorable; 39% unfavorable) has a better favorability rating than Obama (48% favorable; 46 percent unfavorable) in the poll. Obama’s approval rating is 44%, compared to 46% last month, and 50% disapprove of his job performance. 

Virginians favor Romney on issues of  unemployment (53% – 41%), taxes (48% – 44%), and even immigration (46% – 42%) and the deficit (55%-36%). While Obama leads on foreign policy (49% – 43%) and Medicare (48% – 44%), they are tied on Social Security (Obama 45% – 44%) and health care (47% – 47%). 

Fifty-eight percent of voters in Virginia think the United States is on the “wrong track” and 38 percent think the country is on the right track. The numbers are almost flipped when asked about Virginia, with 56% believing Virginia is on the right track and only 32% who think it is on the wrong track. 

The Roanoke College Poll surveyed 638 likely voters between Oct. 23 and Oct. 26, and the poll’s margin of error is +/- 4 percent.