Poll: MA Senate Special Election a Dead Heat Between Gomez, Markey

A poll released by by McLaughlin Associates on Friday shows the Massachusetts race between Republican Gabriel Gomez and Democratic Congressman Ed Markey to replace John Kerry in the United States Senate is a dead heat. 

In a head to head match up, Markey leads Gomez by only one percentage point, 45% to 44%, well within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error. However, Markey’s support is less intense than Gomez’s. If those who are “probable” or “leaners” are removed, and only “definite” supporters are polled, Gomez leads 31% to 28%.

The poll results were compiled from 400 respondents, all likely Massachusetts voters.

The special election will be held on June 25, and concerned Democrats from around the country are pouring money into the race to prop up Markey. The new poll results re-enforce those concerns.

Markey’s high unfavorable ratings are clearly impacting his ballot rating. With a one-to-one favorable to unfavorable rating, Ed Markey will have a difficult time increasing his ballot share. What’s more, the intensity lies with Markey’s unfavorable rating, as the plurality of voters, 29%, is “very unfavorable” to Markey.

Gomez fares better on favorability:

Conversely, nearly half of the voters, 48%, are favorable to Gabriel Gomez, and he receives a relatively low unfavorable rating of 27%. With a high favorable rating and low unfavorable rating, Gabriel Gomez is giving the voters a strong alternative to Ed Markey.

The poll concludes that Gomez may have enough momentum to pull off the kind of upset that shocked the country in 2010 when Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley in a special election to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy. “With less than 3 weeks to go to Election Day, Gabriel Gomez has the momentum in the race,” the poll reports. “Gomez’s high favorable ratings will be a strong asset over Markey’s high unfavorable ratings in this neck-and-neck race.”

The poll was organized and paid for by John Jordan, a Republican contributor.