Democrats Livid After Nate Silver's GOP Senate Takeover Projection
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) blasted statistician Nate Silver for giving Republicans a 60% chance to take back the Senate even though they have been giving Silver's election projections credibility in order fundraise ahead of the 2014 midterms.
On ABC's This Week, Silver said Republicans would win Senate seats in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota and could also win in Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, and even Iowa and Alaska. He said the GOP had a 60% chance to win the six seats they need to take the Senate back and a 30% chance to win as many as 11 seats.
DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil then blasted him for his projections, saying he relied too much on Republican polls.
"Nate Silver and the staff at FiveThirtyEight are doing groundbreaking work, but, as they have noted, they have to base their forecasts on a scarce supply of public polls," he wrote. "In some cases more than half of these polls come from GOP polling outfits."
Cecil wrote that was "one reason why FiveThirtyEight forecasts in North Dakota and Montana were so far off in 2012. In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecasted a 61% likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority. Three months later Democrats went on to win 55 seats."
The DSCC, though, as National Journal reported, was not as critical of Silver before. On at least 11 occasions they have tried fundraising off of Silver's prediction models before his This Week appearance.