Value Add Projections: Dodgers over Tigers in World Series if It Comes Down to Pitching

If it comes down to nothing but who has the better pitching, the Dodgers would beat the Tigers in the World Series, according to Value Add. Game 1 would be a toss-up between two of the three most valuable pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw vs. Max Scherzer, but the Dodgers would have an edge in Games 2-4 with Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ricky Nolasco now all in the Value Add top 20. Here are the potential World Series pitching match-ups:

Rnk LAD Rotation Val Add Edge Rank DET Rotation Value Add
2 Clayton Kershaw 13.23 Toss-up 3 Max Scherzer 13.01
12 Zack Greinke 10.28 LAD 27 Doug Fister 8.94
15 Hyun-Jin Ryu 10.04 LAD 45 Anibal Sanchez 7.29
21 Ricky Nolasco 9.65 LAD 55 Justin Verlander 6.76
115 Edinson Volquez 3.21 DET 64 Rick Porcello 6.18

The two rotations have jumped out to big leads in over all other teams, with only the Braves, Red Sox and Reds at all close:

Team     Sum of Value Add

LAD        48.15

DET        44.22

ATL         41.83

BOS        41.36

CIN         41.26

Of course, baseball also has hitting, fielding, relief pitching and the most luck of any of the major US sports, so the Dodgers and Tigers are below 50-50 to make the Series even though they look to have best rotations in the league.

See the separate post for the ratings of all 218 MLB Starting pitchers, and how the rest of the playoffs would play out in other posts.

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