Donald Trump Has a 44 Percent Chance of Winning, Says Campaign Tracking Site

Donald Trump’s chance of winning the Nov. 8 election has risen from 26 percent on Sept. 1 up to 44 percent on Sept. 20, according to computer simulations conducted by Nate Silver, founder of the fivethirtyeight.com election-tracking site.

Silver’s probability calculation is volatile because the candidate’s chance of winning can change rapidly when new swing-state polls are added to the mix.

Currently, Silver’s calculations predict Hillary Clinton getting 46.3 percent of the popular vote and 281 electoral voters, leaving Donald Trump with 44.6 percent and just shot of 257 electoral voters. The winning line is 270 electoral vote, which are gained by winning many state ballots.

If pollsters show Trump gaining votes in the remaining Clinton-leaning states, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado or Michigan, he could scramble over the 270-vote mark and march into the White House on January 20.

 

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