Big Blue Bellyflop: Dem Advantage in Generic Ballot Hits New Low

AP Photo/Matt Rourke
AP Photo/Matt Rourke

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.

For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.

During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.

In 2006, with an 11.5 percent Democrat edge, Democrats picked up 31 seats.

This year, Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to retake the House, which is looking a lot less doable when you consider that with a huge 11.5 percent advantage, Democrats were only able to snatch 31 seats.

With just a 4.7 percent advantage, Democrats are likely within range of handing the gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but a closer look at the movement of the numbers shows that Democrat energy has been flat, while GOP energy is building.

On March 1, Democrats earned 45.9 percent support, while Republicans earned just 36.6 percent. Today, Democrats sit at 45 percent compared to the GOP’s 40.3 percent.

As of right now, the trend is with the GOP and President Trump has only started to make his case to turn out his base in November.

Moreover, Democrats have no issue to run on — no ideas, unless you count Russia! Russia! Russia! Impeach! Impeach! Impeach! Stormy! Stormy! Stormy!

As Trump begins to remind voters that a takeover of the House by Democrats will almost certainly result in a futile and year-long kangaroo impeachment trial, he should be able to energize a base which is not only eager to see this Russian Hoax come to an end, but to hand the establishment media yet-another electoral defeat.

As far as the fate of the Senate, Republicans actually are likely to pick up a couple of seats, maybe more, and hold that chamber without a sweat.

At least as of now, the GOP has every reason to be happier than Democrats with these polls and the even more important trends.

 Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.

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