This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump’s request
- Israel prepares for the Palestinian ‘Oslo Generation’
Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump’s request
Israeli Arabs in the Oslo Generation (Reuters)
Two potentially explosive policy decisions related to Israel and the Mideast have been put on hold, reflecting the recognition by both the American and Israeli administrations of the need for caution:
- Reports that President Donald Trump on Monday was going to move the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem were shot down by administration officials, saying that they were only at “the very beginning” of discussing plans to move the embassy.
- Under pressure from Trump, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked his cabinet to postpone plans to annex a portion of the West Bank, the Maaleh Adumim settlement near Jerusalem.
Internationally, the pressure on Israel is in a bit of a lull right now. The knife and car attacks and other attacks by young Palestinians on Israelis that were surging in 2015 have subsided, while the tensions over the so-called “peace process” have subsided because the international focus is on the wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
So the delay in implementing these two explosive policy decisions is welcome because it continues this relative lull for a while longer.
Decisions like these should not be implemented without two things:
- Laying the groundwork with an extensive campaign to indicate the public, especially Palestinians, so that even if they disagree with the decisions, they’ll understand them.
- Coming up with something to give in return, such as closing down some little-used settlement elsewhere in the West Bank.
Israel prepares for the Palestinian ‘Oslo Generation’
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. There is no guarantee that Israel will survive this war.
Politicians often get confused about who’s in charge, and believe that they control events. As I’ve written many times, it is a core principle of generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people, and that politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they’re implementing the wishes of the masses of people. In the case of the Palestinians, the average age is less than 20 years old, meaning that major events will be determined not by the 80 year old politicians, but by the masses of teens and 20-somethings.
This is the “Oslo generation” that I’ve described in the past. These kids were all born after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast, but are perceived as accomplishing nothing. These kids feel angry and frustrated, they do not trust their leaders, and they are willing to do what they can to “get things done.”
Nationalist feelings are extremely high at the present time among both the Palestinians and Israelis. This is exactly the kind of climate that leads to both sides setting red lines and taking harsh steps that lead to tit-for-tat reprisals and revenge. That’s why the best policy now is the cautious policy, one that is least likely to result in retaliation and revenge, and to use the time available to prepare for the inevitable war that cannot be prevented. Arab News
- Palestinian ‘Oslo Generation’ relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
- President Trump’s inauguration speech links today’s America to the 1930s (21-Jan-2017)
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
- France issues ultimatum to Israel as West Bank tensions grow (02-Feb-2016)
- Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel (31-Jan-2015)