The stunning return to power of Kevin Rudd has thrown open upcoming Australian elections the conservative opposition was so long tipped to win at a canter.
With the resurrection of the 2007 general election victor, the Labor Party hopes to have given itself a fighting chance for 2013, if the pundits are to be believed.
Polls had consistently tipped Rudd to increase Labor’s vote by up to a third or more if he returned to the leadership.
And the first post-return survey duly reported an immediate swing to the Labor Party.
Research firm Morgan Poll questioned 2,530 Australians by SMS on Wednesday night after Rudd defeated Prime Minister Julia Gillard in a caucus ballot for the party leadership.
The result gave Labor 49.5 percent — up five percent on Morgan polling last weekend. The Liberal-National Party coalition lost five percent to 50.5 percent.
“If a federal election were held today the result would be too close to call,” Morgan predicted after months in which Labor feared an electoral wipeout.
“Suddenly Abbott faces an opponent far more popular than himself,” said the Sydney Morning Herald, referring to opposition leader Tony Abbott.
“The opposition leader’s assured run to election victory has been radically disrupted,” added the daily’s Peter Hartcher.
Rudd spoke directly to voters declaring that he had to come back, despite firm vows never to challenge for the leadership again, to halt Abbott’s “destructive” intent.
“What literally thousands of Australians have said to me over the last year or so is that they are genuinely fearful of what Mr. Abbott could do to them if he’s elected with a massive majority,” said Rudd.
Abbott demanded Thursday in parliament that the September 14 election be brought forward to the earliest possible date to let the people decide.
“When will they get the chance to decide who is the prime minister of this country?” he asked.
The ousted Gillard, gracious in defeat, urged the Labor Party not to “lack the guts” to win the election.
“I know that it can be done … That will best be done by us putting the divisions of the past behind us and uniting as a political party,” she said.
Politics professor John Wanna told AFP Labor badly wanted Rudd’s electioneering talents and populism to stave off crushing defeat.
“His message is much better than Gillard’s, that’s been very clear,” said the Australian National University academic. “He is a populist.
“He is much better at campaigning. They are the skills they (Labor) are looking for. They want him to do what he did in 2007,” when Labor romped home.
“And yes he would be seen as a bit of a martyr. There’s quite a lot about revenge and him being restored to a position he was elected to.”
But Wanna did not expect Rudd to be able to turn round Labor’s electoral fortunes sufficiently in such a short space of time to fashion a general election victory.
“Rudd may have an effect in Queensland, particularly south Queensland where he is probably most popular.”
But nationally, Wanna said, the new prime minister would struggle to bring back voters outside his home state Queensland and possibly Victoria, a traditional Labor stronghold.
It will certainly not be easy for Rudd as he tries to build a new team after several senior, pro-Gillard ministers quit.
The Australian newspaper warned that he “must drag Labor back to the centre” and limit the influence of unions.
Rudd has also been blamed for the rise of people smuggling to Australia and the daily noted the border issue was “likely to be (his ) biggest police challenge” and for Labor “probably an insurmountable obstacle to its re-election”.
Rudd boomerang opens up Australian election
