There is a stupid amount of polling coming out of New Hampshire. Ten polls over five days. But nothing out of Nevada or South Carolina. Sometimes, the useless media’s herd mentality is just annoying. Nevada votes in less than two weeks, on the 22nd. South Carolina a week after that. Since the Iowa caucuses, there’s been no polling of either state. Nothing out of Nevada this month. How stupid is that?
And this ridiculous glut of polling out of New Hampshire, which votes in less than 24 hours, is all over the place. The only thing the polls appear to agree on is that Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar are surging.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are tanking.
And after a real surge, Pete Buttigieg, who won the delegate count in Iowa, appears to have leveled off.
According to the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Sanders is in first place at 29 percent, and Buttigieg is in second at 22. Everyone else is way behind. Warren is in third place with 12.3 percent, Biden is in fourth with 11.5 percent, and Klobuchar is in fifth with 11 percent.
Those are the averages, but some polls show Buttigieg leading Sanders by a point, or closing fast. Two of the most recent polls show Klobuchar in third place and closing fast with Buttigieg and Sanders.
Basically, there is so much movement, so much up in the air, so many plates still spinning, no one knows what will happen tomorrow.
If you tend to follow the polling trends more than the numbers, as I do, there is no question there are two stories in these polls… Klobuchar’s late surge and Biden’s jaw-dropping collapse.
In just ten days, Klobuchar has nearly doubled her support, from 6.6 to 11 percent.
During this same time, Biden plummeted from 18 points to 11 points, from a solid second place to fourth place, and just a half-point ahead of a surging Klobuchar. Burisma Biden could come in *teehee* fifth.
Buttigieg has climbed from 14 percent to 22 percent, from fourth place to a strong second.
Warren has lost a little air, a drop of a couple points, from 14.6 to 12.3, but the fact that a state that neighbors her own Massachusetts has never really embraced her is quite telling.
So if the trends are accurate, I’m going to be a happy camper tomorrow night after Biden and Warren are wiped out — I personally despise both.
History informs us, though, that even trends can be deceiving. In the days leading up to the 2008 New Hampshire Democrat primary, just after his shocking win in Iowa, Barack Obama looked to have all the momentum. He surged eight points ahead of Hillary Clinton but went on to lose by three.
The truth is that we have no idea what’s going to happen in New Hampshire, other than this race will continue to be a total mess for a Democrat Party that has offered up the worst slate of presidential candidates of my lifetime. We also know the train wreck that began in Iowa shows no signs of slowing down.
Bernie is the only candidate with an actual base of support. And not without reason, that base believes their guy got screwed by the Party in 2016 and screwed again in Iowa last week, where he won the popular vote but still lost to Buttigieg. If Bernie loses the nomination this time, it is not at all difficult to see his base sitting home in protest this November, especially if the Party decides on a ringer like Mike Bloomberg, who is basically Mitt Romney 2: an old, white, rich businessmen who was a moderate Republican just a few years ago.
And what exactly are these lunatics running on, besides Orange Man Bad, open borders, funding abortions for biological men, and taking away our health insurance?
Look at this… Klobuchar is running on “decency,” as though her behavior towards Brett Kavanaugh was anything less than a lynch mob by way of character assassination.
But “decency” — or Orange Man Bad — was Hillary Clinton’s gambit, and she got wiped out by Trump in the electoral college.
I have never enjoyed a political election more than this one.