Poll: 85 Percent of Voters Believe Mass Unrest Will Break Out if Trump Wins

Demonstrators raise their fists as a fire burns in the street after clashes with law enforcement near the Seattle Police Departments East Precinct shortly after midnight on June 8, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. Earlier in the evening, a suspect drove into the crowd of protesters and shot one person, which …
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A poll from the Economist and YouGov shows that despite whether you vote for President Donald Trump or for former Vice President Joe Biden, if the president wins reelection, 84 percent of respondents said they believe there will be “mass protests.”

Only one in 11, or nine percent, believe a violent reaction is unlikely, according to the poll.

In the bipartisan finding, 82 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of Republicans believe there will be protests if Trump is reelected. Even more independents — 85 percent — believe members of the losing side will respond with mass unrest.

YouGov reported on its poll and the results if Biden is victorious:

If Joe Biden wins the election next week, it’s anyone’s guess what would happen: 45% think it’s likely there would be mass protests, but an identical number (45%) think it’s unlikely.

Among Biden’s own party, 47% foresee mass protests if he wins the election, while 40% disagree. Independents feel somewhat similarly, with 48% predicting protests and 45% saying it’s unlikely.

Republicans are slightly less likely (42%) than Democrats and Independents to believe there will be mass protests if Biden wins, but not by much. About half (49%) of this group thinks it’s unlikely there would be mass protests if Biden were to win the 2020 presidential election.

A majority of voters, however, do think a transition of power would be peaceful if Biden wins:

Beyond the immediate aftermath of the election, some voters also have doubts about whether there will be a peaceful transition of power in January if Biden wins. Most (54%) likely voters say it is likely that there would be a peaceful transition of power, but 35% think it’s unlikely. Republicans (62%) are more likely than Independents (54%) and Democrats (43%) to predict a peaceful transition of power in the event that Biden is victorious.

The Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 registered voters interviewed online between October 25 and 27, 2020. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education and was based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential election vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. 

“Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens,” YouGov reported.

The margin of error of the poll is approximately 3.1 percent for the overall sample.

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