Former President Donald Trump expanded his lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) by 12 points between March and July in Utah, according to Noble Predictive Insights’ Utah Public Opinion Pulse survey released Tuesday.
The poll, conducted from July 7–18, shows that 48 percent of respondents backed Trump for the nomination, placing him 30 points ahead of DeSantis at 18 percent. Trump surged seven points compared to the pollster’s March survey, while DeSantis lost five percent of his support.
Utah 2024: Trump holds 30-point lead for Republican Nomination
• Trump — 48% (+30)
• DeSantis — 18%
• Pence — 10%
• Ramaswamy — 6%
• Haley — 3%
• Scott — 3%
• Christie — 2%@NoblePredictive | n=301 | 07/07-18https://t.co/1nRuOn89wi pic.twitter.com/tLB3V79RNy— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023
“Our data shows that even in Utah – once a bastion of conservative resistance to Trump – the former president is gaining ground,” the polling outfit’s chief of research, David Byler, said in a release.
For reference, in 2016, Trump placed third in the Utah caucus, garnering 14 percent of the vote, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) took all 40 delegates with 69 percent of the vote. This poll demonstrates the tide has shifted over the years.
“DeSantis has struggled to find a compelling message or excite the grassroots, and many Republicans rallied to Trump in the aftermath of his indictments,” Byler added. “There’s still time for this primary to shift, but Trump’s position has clearly improved.”
Former Vice President Mike Pence’s support was unchanged from March, as he again registered at ten percent in the latest survey. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy garnered six percent in July’s poll; Noble Predictive Insights did not include him in previous Utah surveys.
Utah 2024: Trump Holds 18-Point Lead for Republican Nomination
• Trump — 41%
• DeSantis — 23%
• Pence — 10%
• Haley — 5%
• Rubio — 3%
• Youngkin — 1%
• T. Scott — 0%
• Hutchinson — 0%
• Sununu — 0%@OHPredictive | 302 RV | 03/14-23https://t.co/4vGDnpObP5 pic.twitter.com/vHABmktRC0
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 4, 2023
From there, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) each took three percent of the response, followed by former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) at two percent. No other candidate secured a percentage point.
Noble Predictive Insights noted the poll was conducted prior to the Utah Republican Party’s move on August 10 to opt for a caucus — “which tends to lower turnout and empower the party’s activist base” — over a primary.
“It’s unclear whether this change – or events in the coming months – will allow one of Trump’s opponents to make headway,” the release said.
The pollster sampled 301 registered Republicans in Utah, and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.65 percentage points.
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