Karizona: Kari Lake Leads One AZ Senate Poll, Democrat Leads Another

Election 2024 CPAC
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Nick Gilbertson

Arizona Republican Kari Lake, who is set to announce her candidacy for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, leads a hypothetical three-way race in one poll, as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads the three-way contest in another poll that his campaign commissioned. 

An independent National Research poll, first reported Tuesday by the Washington Examiner, shows Lake leading a potential race against Gallego and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Although Sinema has not announced a reelection bid at this point, her team reportedly has the framework in place in the event she runs, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

Lake takes 37 percent of the response in this scenario, placing her ahead of Gallego, who sees 33 percent. Sinema follows in third place with 19 percent of backing, and another ten percent of respondents are undecided. Notably, Lake’s lead is nearly outside of the plus or minus 4.9 percent margin of error (MOE). 

Among independents, Sinema fares best with 33 percent support, while Lake is hot on her trail with 32 percent of the population. Just over one in four independents support Gallego, and another nine percent of the demographic is undecided. 

A head-to-head race between Gallego and Lake shows a dead heat, with the candidates locked at 44 percent. The number of undecided voters climbs to 12 percent in a Democrat versus Republican showdown. Lake enjoys a 43 percent to 39 percent advantage among independents in this scenario.

National Research sampled 400 likely voters in the Grand Canyon State between October 7-9, and the margin of error registers at plus or minus 4.9 percent. 

In a Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll commissioned by the Gallego campaign and shared with the Hill, the Democrat holds a five-point lead in a race that includes Lake and Sinema. Gallego registers at 41 percent, while Lake takes 36 percent, and Sinema pulls 15 percent. Another eight percent of respondents are undecided. 

When Sinema is removed from the hypothetical ballot, Gallego sits at 48 percent, and Lake registers at 43 percent. 

Notably, Lake will be the second candidate to join the GOP primary after Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. The poll also gauged a three-way contest with Lamb in place of Lake. He trails Gallego at nine percent, as Lamb and Gallego are at 31 percent and 40 percent, respectively, while Sienma moves up to 15 percent. The share of undecided voters expands to 13 percent in this scenario.  

Similarly, it gauged a hypothetical three-way race with 2022 Arizona Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters in Lake’s place, which yielded similar results to Lamb’s match-up. 

“Between Gallego, Sinema and former Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (R), Gallego received 41 percent, Masters sat at 31 percent and Sinema received 17 percent; 11 percent were not sure,” the Hill’s Caroline Vakil noted.

According to the Journal’s Eliza Collins, Masters “had been moving forward with a run” but ultimately “put those plans on hold after [Donald] Trump called him and walked through Lake’s strengths in a GOP primary, according to people familiar with the call.”

PPP sampled 522 Arizona voters from October 6-7, with a MOE of plus or minus 4.3 percent, per the Hill.

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