Poll: Trump Maintains 4-Point Edge over Biden in Head-to-Head Race

Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally on May 28, 2022, in Casper, Wyom
Chet Strange/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump maintains the advantage over President Joe Biden in both a hypothetical head-to-head race and a deeper general election field, according to the latest national Emerson College poll. 

The poll, published on Friday, shows that 47 percent of the 1,000 American registered voters surveyed back Trump in a race with Biden, who trails with 43 percent of support. The numbers are unchanged from an Emerson College survey published on November 22. Nearly one in ten respondents were undecided in the current poll. 

In a hypothetical five-way race with other declared presidential candidates, Trump’s edge over Biden grows to six points. Trump leads the way with 43 percent, while Biden’s support dwindles to 37 percent as Democrat-turned-independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr. garners 7 percent of the response. 

From there, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each scored one percent, and the share of undecided voters grew to twelve percent. The results of a five-way competition in this month’s polls are similar to November’s results, which had Trump at 42 percent, Biden at 36 percent, and Kennedy at 7 percent. 

The credibility interval for the general election portion of the poll is plus or minus three percent, and the field dates were December 4-6. 

In the Republican presidential primary, Trump continues to dominate the field with 64 percent support – unchanged since November 22. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) sits in second place with fourteen percent while Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) takes seven percent. Four percent back entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) each. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), who has not made the last two debate stages, rounds out the field with two percent support. 

“As younger Democrats distance themselves from Biden, Trump’s formidable backing within the Republican primary is strongest among younger voters,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a release. “This presents a potential quandary for Biden, who secured a nearly 2-to-1 victory among young voters in the 2020 election.”

Haley has climbed five points since November, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy are each down a point month-over-month. Notably, the share of undecided voters has dwindled from ten percent to six percent during this time. 

However, Haley gets trounced when pitted against Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head race. With all other candidates removed from the field, Trump sees a bigger boost in support than Haley, surging 13 points to 77 percent while she climbs 10 points to 24 percent. 

The GOP primary aspect of the poll included responses from 466 participants who plan to vote in their state’s primary or caucus. The credibility interval for this aspect of the poll was not specified. 

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