Former President Donald Trump leads or is tied with President Joe Biden in six of the eight 2024 swing states, state polling shows.
Taken as a whole, the surveys are significant due to Biden’s 2020 victories in all eight of the states now considered 2024 battlegrounds.
The most recent polling in each state depicts Trump’s dramatic lead:
One: Michigan
Trump plus four points: Emerson College
Two: Wisconsin
Trump plus nine points: Emerson College
Three: Minnesota
Biden plus eight points: Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab/Mainstreet Research
Four: Pennsylvania
Trump ties Biden (even): Fox News
Five: Georgia
Trump plus seven points: YouGov
Six: Arizona
Trump plus five points: Fox News
Seven: Nevada
Trump plus 18 points: Emerson College
Eight: Virginia
Biden plus six points: Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab/Mainstreet Research
Trump’s polling lead over Biden is due to the ongoing political realignment upending Biden’s 2024 intersectional coalition, Republican insiders told Breitbart News. “The swing states needed to win the White House are all coming back to Trump,” Republican strategist Garrett Ventry told Breitbart News. “He is building a winning diverse coalition of working-class voters and minority voters.”
“It’s simple: they know Joe Biden’s policies harmed them, and Donald Trump’s policies helped them,” he added.
Democrat inroads with black, Latino, and Asian voters deteriorated to the lowest point in 60 years, polling from Gallup and Siena College recently revealed. Hispanic and black men could vote for Trump in proportions not seen in American politics since the 1950s.
“Biden’s disastrous open border, out-of-control crime, crippling inflation, and third-world lawfare against his political rival is catapulting Trump back into the White House,” said Mike Davis, founder and president of the pro-Trump Article III Project.
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Randy Clark / BreitbartThe non-white identification with Democrats is “at its lowest since the 1960s, before the civil rights movement and the 1964 election which aligned Black voters with the Dems and against the GOP,” Financial Times columnist and chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch explained on X.
The political realignment is also among class and income demographics. “In 2020 the richest third of voters favoured the Dems for the first time, and the Republicans improved with the poorest,” Burn-Murdoch wrote. “The GOP now appeals to working- and middle-class voters of all ethnicities.”
Karoline Leavitt, the national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said Biden’s deteriorating support is due to his far-left policies that do not resonate with independents.
“There are more than 100 polls showing President Trump crushing Joe Biden, including recent polling that has him leading in every key battleground state and winning independents by double digits,” Leavitt said.
“Joe Biden no longer has a base as key Democrat constituencies such as African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and women are supporting President Trump because they are sick and tired of Crooked Joe’s record-high inflation, open borders, crime and chaos,” she added.
Trump appeared to spur the realignment in 2016, forcing the Republican Party to identify with working-class citizens instead of college-educated, upper-income, and big business voters, according to Patrick Ruffini, the cofounder of Echelon Insights.
“Trump may have perfectly embodied this old Republican stereotype, but under his watch, the party now has more people in it on the bottom half of the economic ladder, without college diplomas,” Ruffini explained in Time. “This is a net positive for the GOP’s ability to win elections in the future, given that more than 6 in 10 voters don’t have a college degree.”
“But what’s different in 2024 is an election playing out under an umbrella of economic anxiety,” he continued. “And that’s pushing more working class voters into Trump’s camp—especially nonwhite voters commonly aligned with the Democratic Party.”
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
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