Value Add Projections: Dodgers over Tigers in World Series if It Comes Down to Pitching

If it comes down to nothing but who has the better pitching, the Dodgers would beat the Tigers in the World Series, according to Value Add. Game 1 would be a toss-up between two of the three most valuable pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw vs. Max Scherzer, but the Dodgers would have an edge in Games 2-4 with Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ricky Nolasco now all in the Value Add top 20. Here are the potential World Series pitching match-ups:

Rnk	LAD Rotation	Val Add	Edge	Rank	DET Rotation	Value Add
2	Clayton Kershaw	13.23	Toss-up	3	Max Scherzer	13.01
12	Zack Greinke	10.28	LAD	27	Doug Fister	8.94
15	Hyun-Jin Ryu	10.04	LAD	45	Anibal Sanchez	7.29
21	Ricky Nolasco	9.65	LAD	55	Justin Verlander	6.76
115	Edinson Volquez	3.21	DET	64	Rick Porcello	6.18

The two rotations have jumped out to big leads in over all other teams, with only the Braves, Red Sox and Reds at all close:

Team Sum of Value Add

LAD 48.15

DET 44.22

ATL 41.83

BOS 41.36

CIN 41.26

Of course, baseball also has hitting, fielding, relief pitching and the most luck of any of the major US sports, so the Dodgers and Tigers are below 50-50 to make the Series even though they look to have best rotations in the league.

See the separate post for the ratings of all 218 MLB Starting pitchers, and how the rest of the playoffs would play out in other posts.

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