The 2020 election did not give a boost to the U.S. labor market, according to data from payroll processor ADP.
Businesses expanded payrolls by just 307,000 in November, ADP’s national employment report showed Wednesday. That was far below the consensus forecast for hiring to grew to 420,000 from the initial October estimate of 365,000.
October’s estimate was revised up to 404,000.
Four years ago, the election of Donald Trump preceded a huge jump in hiring. The ADP report for November 2016 showed that businesses “hired aggressively,”said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which produces the report with payroll processor ADP.
Biden, who has been declared the winner of the election by the mainstream media over the objections of President Donald Trump and many of his supporters, has promised to raise taxes, reverse Trump’s tariff policies, and impose many new regulations on businesses. He has said he will nominate Janet Yellen, who chaired the Federal Reserve during the presidency of Barack Obama, as Treasury Secretary.
Some businesses may be holding back hiring in anticipation of looser rules for visa workers and immigration that would likely enable employers to pay lower wages.
The surge of Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths may also be weighing on employment. Even more, new restrictions on business operations and the return of lockdowns decrease the demand for workers.
The monthly ADP report has fallen out of sync with the official figures released each month by the Department of Labor. Last month, ADP initially reported 365,000 new private-sector jobs and the U.S. government reported 906,000. Many economists think the chaotic lurches in the economy, with hugely elevated layoffs and giant new hiring reports, has made the labor market harder to track.
Midsized firms, those with 50 to 499 workers, did the most hiring for the month, adding 139,000 positions. Small companies were a close second, adding 110,000. Big businesses lagged with just 58,000 additional workers.
The goods producing sector added 31,000 jobs, led by construction hiring workers for 22,000 new positions. The services sector added 276,000 jobs, led by leisure and hospitality’s 95,000 and education and health’s 69,000.
The U.S. government will release its official count of November hiring and unemployment on Friday. Economists think nonfarm payrolls, which include private and public sector hiring, will expand by 500,000, a slowdown from 638,000 in October. Private sector payrolls are expected to expand by 590,000, much slower than October’s 906,000.