Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second-lowest reading since April, as Americans grew increasingly pessimistic about their financial prospects and the economy’s direction amid an ongoing federal government shutdown.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7, down from 95.5 in October, marking the sharpest monthly decline since the spring. The drop ended several months of sideways movement and brought the index to its most depressed level in more than half a year.
The decline was driven by deteriorating views across multiple dimensions of economic life. Americans grew more negative about current business conditions, with those rating conditions as “bad” rising to 19.9% from 14.5% in October. The labor market differential—the gap between those saying jobs are “plentiful” versus “hard to get”—narrowed again after a brief October respite.
Most troubling for economists was the forward-looking Expectations Index, which plunged 8.6 points to 63.2. That marks the tenth consecutive month the gauge has remained below 80, a threshold that historically signals a recession ahead.
“All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now.”
The survey revealed collapsing confidence in household finances. Assessments of current financial situations fell to their lowest level since August 2024, when a confluence of negative events triggered a brief market selloff and recession concerns. Only 11.3% of consumers now expect their incomes to increase over the next six months, down sharply from 18.2% in October, while 13.8% expect incomes to decline.
The deterioration cut across demographic and political lines. Confidence fell for nearly all income groups except those earning less than $15,000, though that cohort remained the least optimistic overall. Consumers age 35 and older grew more downbeat, with those 55 and over remaining the most pessimistic. Independent voters showed the sharpest retreat among political affiliations.
Peterson noted that consumers’ written responses increasingly mentioned the federal government shutdown as a factor affecting their economic outlook, alongside persistent concerns about prices, inflation, tariffs and trade. The government shutdown in October and remained closed for a record 43 days after Senate Democrats used the filibuster to block appropriations bills. Some Democrats have indicated they may attempt to force the government to shut down again when the current funding runs out at the end of January, a move which could prompt Republicans to override the filubuster by changing Senate rules. This week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Republicans should end the filibuster if Democrats attempt to block funding bills again, noting that the threat could deter Senate Democrats.
The gloomy sentiment translated into reduced spending intentions. Plans to purchase big-ticket items over the next six months declined across most categories, from cars and household appliances to electronics. Service spending plans also contracted broadly, with consumers pulling back on everything from restaurants to vacation travel.
Healthcare spending intentions surged to become the second-most-cited category, potentially reflecting heightened focus on insurance premiums and subsidies during the shutdown. Overall, spending trends have shifted toward “cheap thrills and necessary services” and away from expensive discretionary activities, the Conference Board said.
Inflation expectations remained elevated, with the median 12-month outlook rising to 4.8%. About half of consumers expect interest rates to increase, while the share anticipating lower rates edged down.
Despite the pessimism, the proportion believing a recession is “very likely” over the next 12 months fell further in November. However, the share thinking the economy is already in recession rose for the fourth consecutive month.
The survey was conducted through November 18, capturing sentiment before Thanksgiving but during the government shutdown.
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