The Brexit campaign to lead Britain out of the European Union (EU) has opened up a 10-point lead over Remain campaigners, a “remarkable” new poll has revealed.
The ORB International poll – which has deviated from the criticised “random digit dial” methodology and used 2,000 online respondents instead – shows a 55-point turnout for Leave, with 45 per cent support for Remain.
Of all respondents, 53 per cent said they’d vote to Leave, with just 46 per cent opting to stay. But when eliminating those who have said they won’t, or are unlikely to vote, the margin changes to 55 against 45 points.
Older and working class voters are more likely to vote to leave, according to the ORB poll for the Independent. Stunningly, only Scotland would have a majority for Remain (62 against 38) with even London opting to Leave the EU (51 against 49). When adjusted for turnout in London, “only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favour voting to leave”.
A majority of private sector employees would choose to Leave, with a majority of public sector workers aiming to stay.
Nearly half of Labour’s voters (42 per cent) say they’ll vote to Leave, with Brexit support from the Conservative Party at 61 per cent, suggesting the Prime Minister would not have support from his own party after the referendum.
While 55 per cent of people think leaving the European Union would pose “some risk”, many are still willing to take the chance. Just 26 per cent of voters say there would be “a great deal of risk”, perhaps a sign that the government and the Remain campaign’s “Project Fear” is not working.
In fact most UK voters believe the campaign has been “too negative”, with 69 per cent saying so.
The poll also reveals that women more than men are likely to vote to Leave, with 53 per cent stumping for Leave, a figure that goes down to 47 per cent amongst men.
Over one in three Black or Ethnic Minority voters say they’ll vote to Leave, with around one in three Muslims sharing the view, and 66 per cent of Jewish voters saying they’d vote to Leave too.
The polling suggests it is also the richest in society who would opt to stay, perhaps confirming the Leave campaign line that the European Union serves the richest best.